摘 要:凭借在机制解释及反事实分析等方面的优势,结构模型早已成为国际顶尖经济学期刊主流的实证研究范式,在中国经济学界却仍被视作“阳春白雪”。为了帮助中国经济学者丰富实证工具箱,本文以结构模型中使用较为广泛的新实证产业组织模型为例,对结构模型在中国情境下怎么用、在哪里用这一基本问题做出回答。通过对新实证产业组织模型进行介绍,本文指出在因果识别和机制检验、结构性参数估计、反事实政策评估和福利分析等方面,结构模型较传统的“简约式”模型优势明显。进一步对相关模型在中国经济问题研究中的应用进行综述发现,新实证产业组织模型在解释中国消费者和企业行为、记录中国经济转型中的市场竞争变化、评估消费政策和产业政策有效性,解释数字经济时代的新经济现象等方面发挥了重要作用。随着新发展格局的确立和数字经济时代的到来,新实证产业组织模型在以下三个方面仍有广阔的运用空间:需求侧的微观基础理论和政策研究、反垄断经济分析的应用,以及数字经济的理论和政策研究。
关键词:结构模型 新实证产业组织 中国经济 政策评估
The Application of New Empirical Industrial Organization Model in Chinese Economic Research
Shiyu Tan Shuyi Yu Wanzong Wu
Abstract: By virtue of its advantages in mechanism explanation and counterfactual analysis, structural model has long been a mainstream empirical research paradigm in top international economics journals, but it is still regarded as "white snow in the spring" in Chinese economics. In order to help Chinese economists enrich their empirical toolbox, this paper takes the new empirical industrial organization model, which is widely used in structural models, as an example to answer the basic question of how and where to use structural models in the Chinese context. By introducing the new empirical industrial organization model, this paper points out that the structural model has obvious advantages over the traditional "parsimonious" model in terms of causality identification and mechanism testing, structural parameter estimation, counterfactual policy evaluation and welfare analysis. A further review of the application of related models in the study of China's economic issues reveals that the new empirical industrial organization model plays an important role in explaining the behavior of Chinese consumers and firms, documenting the changes in market competition during China's economic transformation, evaluating the effectiveness of consumption and industrial policies, and explaining the new economic phenomena in the era of the digital economy. With the establishment of the new development pattern and the advent of the digital economy era, the new empirical industrial organization model still has a wide scope of application in the following three areas: micro-foundational theory and policy research on the demand side, application of anti-monopoly economic analysis, and theory and policy research on the digital economy.
Key Words: Structural Model New Empirical Industrial Organization China's Economy Policy Evaluation
JEL Classification: L13 D12 C52 C53
电商下乡、流通业发展与农村居民收入
谢莉娟 许雅琳 武子歆
摘 要:农村居民收入的持续增长不仅有助于巩固脱贫攻坚成果,更是推动乡村全面振兴的重要体现。本文基于2010-2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据和电子商务进农村综合示范项目数据,检验了电商下乡政策对农村居民收入的影响,并讨论了流通业发展对该政策的效应发挥所起的作用。研究发现,电商下乡政策能显著提升农村居民收入,增收效应在距离省会城市近的地区更为突出,在距离省会城市远的地区,政策作用的发挥则依赖于较高的流通业发展水平;并且,电商下乡政策所促进的收入类型及受流通业发展水平的调节效应存在地区间差异。本文结论为提升相关政策的实施效率提供了思路。
关键词:电子商务进农村综合示范项目 流通业发展 农村居民收入
Demonstration Policies of Rural E-commerce, Development of the Distribution Industry and Household Income
Lijuan Xie Yalin Xu Zixin Wu
Abstract:The sustained growth of rural residents' income not only helps consolidate the results of poverty alleviation, but also is an important manifestation of promoting the comprehensive rural revitalization. Based on data from the 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project, this paper examines the impact of the policy of rural e-commerce promotion on the incomes of rural residents and discusses the role of the distribution industry. The study finds that the policy can significantly boost rural residents' income, and the effect is more prominent in areas close to provincial capitals, while in the other areas, this effect relies on the well-developed distribution industry. Moreover, there are inter-regional heterogeneity in the type of income promoted by the policy and the moderating effect of the development of the distribution industry. The conclusions of this paper provide enlightenment for the efficient implementation of related policies.
Keywords: National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project Development of the Distribution Industry Rural Household Income
JEL Classification: D10 O12 O20
中国式现代化的本土文明基因
高桂爱 刘刚
摘 要:中国式现代化的“中国性”源自何处?按“土壤+历程”的框架解释,容易将中国式现代化的文明基因指向“外源外生”,在一定程度上忽略甚至否定其基因层面的本土文明根脉。本文尝试从以下几个方面解开这一问题:1840年之前的中国是否出现了能够育成现代化的文明基因?这些基因是否传承了下来并参与塑造了中国式现代化的“中国性”特征,并进一步强化、优化中国式现代化的“中国性”,使中国式现代化行稳致远?我们在“中国式现代化的本土文明基因”视角下对现代化和经济史研究中涉及这一问题的文献素材进行了“再发现”,并引入辩证历史观和方法论进一步深化这一议题,以期在理论上为中国式现代化的本土文明基因研究“立题”,为其探索一个可能参考的历史和逻辑起点。
关键词:中国式现代化 明清经济史 斯密增长 勤劳革命
The Native Civilization Gene of Chinese Modernization
Guiai Gao Gang Liu
Abstract: Where does the "Chineseness" of Chinese modernization come from? According to the framework of "soil + process", it is easy to point the civilization genes of Chinese modernization to "exogenous", ignoring or even denying the roots of local civilization at the genetic level to a certain extent. This paper attempts to unravel this question from the following aspects: Did China before 1840 have a civilization gene capable of breeding modernization? Have these genes been inherited and involved in shaping the "Chinese character" of Chinese modernization, and further strengthening and optimizing the "Chinese character" of Chinese modernization, so that Chinese modernization can be stable and long-term? From the perspective of "the gene of local civilization in Chinese modernization", we have "rediscovered" the literature materials related to this issue in the study of modernization and economic history, and introduced the dialectical historical view and methodology to further deepen this issue, in order to theoretically "set the topic" for the study of the gene of local civilization in Chinese modernization, and provide a possible historical and logical starting point for its exploration.
Key Words: Chinese modernization Economic History of the Ming and Qing Dynasties Smith Growth Industrious Revolution
JEL Classification: B14 B15
制度型开放如何影响产业结构升级?——基于空间溢出效应的视角
李平 王丽丽
摘 要:本文从空间效应视角切入,利用地理和经济距离嵌套权重矩阵构建空间滞后模型,基于2005-2021年中国31个省(市、区)数据探究制度型开放对产业结构升级的影响。研究得出:实施制度型开放能够促进产业结构升级,同时空间溢出效应显著,且因制度型开放政策时间节点、区域协调与创新能力、指标维度不同的影响,效应发挥呈现明显异质性;机制检验发现,改善市场环境是制度型开放提升产业结构升级的有效中间渠道;进一步研究表明,制度型开放的空间溢出效应呈现地理距离衰减特征,存在区域有效边界。以上结论为制度型开放助推区域间良性互动、实现产业结构转型升级提供了合理的政策启示。
关键词:制度型开放 产业结构升级 空间溢出效应 有效边界
How Does Institutional Opening Affect Industrial Structure Upgrading?
—— A Perspective Based on Spatial Spillover Effects
Ping Li Lili Wang
Abstract: From the perspective of spatial effect, this paper uses the geographical and economic distance nested weight matrix to construct a spatial lag model, and explores the impact of institutional opening on the upgrading of industrial structure based on the data of 31 provinces (cities and regions) in China from 2005 to 2021. The study shows that the implementation of institutional opening can promote the upgrading of industrial structure, while the space spillover effect is significant, and the time nodes, regional coordination and innovation ability and index dimensions; improving market environment is an effective intermediate channel to enhance industrial structure upgrading; further study shows that the spatial spillover effect of institutional opening presents the characteristics of geographical distance decay and regional effective boundary. The above conclusions provide reasonable policy inspiration for the institutional opening to boost the benign interaction between regions and realize the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.
Keywords: Institutional Opening Industrial Structure Upgrading Spatial Spillover Effect Effective Border
JEL Classification:O14,O43
姚博[1]
摘 要:本文采用明清时期地区层面商帮数据,实证研究了商帮文化对金融发展的影响。研究发现,商帮文化显著促进了金融发展。结合金融供给放宽政策的准自然实验结果显示,这种促进作用主要源于企业创办和投资行为所产生的融资需求。机制分析表明,商帮文化在历史上越活跃的地区,经商传统越浓厚,营商环境越优良,进而引起企业创办和投资行为对融资服务的需求越多。本文揭示了商业文明对金融市场的开发能力,拓展了文化与金融之间关系的文献,对于理解地区金融发展差异,探寻传统商业文化价值具有重要意义。
关键词:商帮 金融 融资需求 传统商业文化
Merchant Guild Culture、Financing Demand
and Financial Development
Bo Yao
Abstract: This paper empirically studies the influence of merchant guild culture on financial development using the data of the regional merchant guild during the Ming and Qing dynasties. The study finds that the merchant guild culture significantly promotes the financial development. According to the quasi natural experiment result of the finance supply liberalization policy, it shows that this promotion effect mainly stems from the financing demand generated by enterprise establishment and investment behavior. Mechanism analysis shows that the more active the merchant guild culture is in history, the stronger the business tradition is, and the better the business environment is, which causes more demand for financing services from enterprise establishment and investment behavior. This paper reveals the development ability of the commercial civilization to the financial market, expands the literature on the relationship between culture and finance, and is of great significance for understanding regional financial development differences and exploring the value of traditional business culture.
Keywords: Merchant Guild Finance Financing Demand Traditional Business Culture
JEL Classification: G10 G32 Z19
知识产权示范城市建设的出口升级效应研究
方慧 袁历伟
摘 要:出口转型是贸易强国建设的关键,强化知识产权保护是新发展格局下中国实现贸易提质升级的重要举措。本文选取2007-2018年中国271个地级市的面板数据,以法经济学为基础并结合多期DID模型,系统考察了知识产权示范城市的设立对出口技术复杂度的影响及机制。研究发现:知识产权示范城市的设立能够显著促进出口技术复杂度的提升,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析发现,知识产权示范城市设立的出口升级效应在省会城市、副省级城市等高级城市和东部沿海城市更为显著。机制分析表明,打造创新蓄水池、产业结构升级、完善知识产权交易市场以及吸引外商直接投资是其重要的作用渠道。本文为中国协同推进知识产权保护和出口升级的策略制定提供有益参考,对推动出口贸易高质量发展、赋能双循环新发展格局具有重要现实意义。
关键词:知识产权示范城市 出口技术复杂度 知识产权保护 产业结构升级
Research on The Export Upgrading Effect of The Construction
of Intellectual Property Demonstration Cities
Hui Fang Liwei Yuan
Abstract: Export transformation is the key to building a trade power, and strengthening intellectual property protection is an important measure for China to improve the quality and upgrade of trade under the new development pattern. Using the panel data of 271 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2018, this paper systematically examines the impact and mechanism of the establishment of intellectual property demonstration cities on the technological complexity of export based on the law and economics and the multi-period DID model. It is found that the establishment of intellectual property demonstration cities can significantly promote the increase of technological complexity of export, which is still valid after a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the export upgrading effect of IPR demonstration cities is more significant in advanced cities such as provincial capital and sub-provincial level and eastern coastal cities. Mechanism analysis shows that creating innovation reservoir, upgrading industrial structure, perfecting intellectual property trading market and attracting foreign direct investment are important channels. This paper provides a useful reference for the strategy formulation of China's coordinated promotion of intellectual property protection and export upgrading, and has important practical significance for promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade and enabling the new development pattern of double circulation.
Keywords: Intellectual Property Demonstration Cities Export Technical Complexity Intellectual Property Protection Industrial Structure Upgrade
JEL Classification: F14 L52
环保“费改税”对中国医药制造业绿色创新的影响研究
李勋来 陆文琪
摘 要:企业发展使得人们的生活水平不断提升,但同时也对生活环境带来了更大的负担,为了实现我国经济高质量可持续发展,政府不断推出和完善环保政策,鼓励企业在发展的同时,增加对环境的关注。中国于2018年1月1日正式实施环保“费改税”政策,对企业排污施加更大的环境合法性压力,以期达到促进企业绿色创新的效果,为了对政策实施效果进行评估,本文以2015—2021年沪深两市A股医药制造业上市公司为研究对象,采用双重差分法对环保“费改税”政策的绿色创新影响效果进行考察,并应用中介效应检验法分析企业内部研发投入和外部融资限制发挥的中介作用。研究发现:①环保“费改税”政策显著促进了医药制造企业绿色创新。②规模越大的企业绿色创新水平越高;政府补贴对医药制造业企业绿色创新呈现显著负相关关系,在一定程度上抑制了企业绿色创新。③企业R&D投入在环保“费改税”政策与医药制造业企业绿色创新的关系中发挥着部分中介作用。④环保“费改税”政策通过减轻企业融资约束间接促进企业绿色创新。基于以上研究结论,本文提出以下政策建议:政府应因地制宜,对不同的企业,选择合理恰当的税额标准;加强对政府补贴的监督管理,丰富完善补贴方式,使其能够更加有效地促进企业实质性绿色创新;规范和完善企业绿色创新的融资机制,缓解企业融资困境;企业应建立健全投资管理体系以提升研发投资效率等。
关键词:环保“费改税” 医药制造业 绿色创新
Research on The Impact of Environmental Protection "Fee to Tax" on Green Innovation in China's Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry
Xunlai Li Wenqi Lu
Abstract:Enterprise production makes people's living standards continue to improve, but also brings a greater burden on the living environment, in order to achieve high-quality sustainable development of China's economy, the government continues to introduce and improve environmental protection policies, tax plays an important role. On January 1, 2018, China officially implemented the environmental protection "fee to tax" policy, exerting greater pressure on environmental legitimacy on polluters, in order to achieve the effect of promoting green innovation of enterprises. In order to evaluate the effect of policy implementation, this paper takes pharmaceutical manufacturing listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock exchanges from 2015 to 2021 as the research object. This paper uses the difference-difference method to study the effect of the green innovation of the "fee to tax" policy, and analyzes the mediating role of the internal R&D investment and external financing restrictions by using the mediating effect. The findings are as follows:①Environmental protection "fee to tax" policy significantly promoted the green innovation of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises.②The larger the enterprise scale, the higher the level of green innovation; Government subsidies have a significant negative correlation with the green innovation of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises, which inhibits the green innovation of enterprises to a certain extent.③Enterprise R D investment plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between environmental protection "fee to tax" policy and green innovation of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises.④ Environmental protection "fee to tax" policy indirectly promotes enterprises to carry out green innovation by reducing the degree of corporate financing constraints. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: the government should choose reasonable and appropriate tax standards for different enterprises according to local conditions; Strengthen the supervision and management of subsidies, enrich and improve the subsidy methods, so that they can more effectively promote the substantive green innovation of enterprises; Standardize and improve the financing mechanism of enterprise green innovation to alleviate the financing dilemma of enterprises; Enterprises should establish a sound investment management system to improve the efficiency of R&D investment; We should establish "green" production concept and implement green technology innovation strategy.
Keywords:Environmental Protection "Fee to Tax" Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry Green Innovation Double Difference Mediating Effect
JEL Classification:Q58 H23