基于双循环视角的我国产业链演化特征与关键中间品企业成长
陈柳 孙瑞东
摘 要:提升我国产业基础能力的一个重要方面是要实现关键中间品企业的成长,这是突破“卡脖子”技术的关键。我国产业链演化的重要特征是在外循环阶段形成大规模下游加工集成制造产能,并且下游企业正在由简单组装向复杂集成和制造工艺一体化的方向升级,产业政策应当充分重视发挥此类产业的优势,在我国经济内循环为主的阶段将其作为提升我国产业基础能力的重要支撑。对光伏产业链较长时间跨度的跟踪研究表明,在外向型阶段形成了具有国际竞争力的“硅料—硅片—电池—组件”产品加工链条,加工制造型链主企业对关键中间投入品的国产化起到关键作用。本文的政策含义是,在加工集成型产业链中,国产化的顺序是先下游产品、后关键中间品投入品,现阶段要围绕进一步发挥下游龙头企业链主功能,减少上下游企业协调成本,促进产业链关键技术和关键环节的突破。
关键词:双循环 产业链演化 中间品 企业成长
Evolutionary Characteristics of China's Industrial Chain and Growth of Key Intermediate Goods Enterprises Based on A “Dual Circulation” Development Pattern
Liu Chen Ruidong Sun
Abstract:An important aspect of upgrading China's basic industrial capacity is to achieve the growth of key intermediate goods enterprises, which is crucial for breaking through “key areas and stranglehold problems”. An important feature of the evolution of China's industrial chain is the formation of large-scale downstream processing and integrated manufacturing capacity in the external circulation. Nowadays downstream enterprises are upgrading from simple assembly to complex integration of manufacturing processes. Industrial policy should pay due attention to the advantages of such industries in the internal circulation and take advantage of them as an important support to enhance China's basic industrial capacity. According to the tracking research of the PV industry chain, at the outward-oriented stage, an internationally competitive “silicon - wafer - cell – module” product chain has been formed, and the main enterprises of the processing and manufacturing chain play a key role in the localization of key intermediate inputs. The policy implication of this paper is that in the processing integrated industry chain, the order of localization is first downstream products, then followed by key intermediate inputs. At this stage, we should further focus on playing the function of the chain master of the leading downstream enterprises, reducing the coordination cost of upstream and downstream enterprises, and promoting the breakthrough of key technologies and key sectors of the industry chain.
Keywords: Dual Cycle Industrial Chain Evolution Intermediate Goods Enterprise Growth
JEL Classification: L11 L16 L60
单轴双层轴辐协议的形成机制与竞争政策
于左 王乐 张煜唯
摘 要:通过研究轴辐协议有关案例,发现轴心经营者不仅可以组织、帮助单层辐条经营者达成垄断协议,还可以同时组织、帮助双层辐条经营者达成垄断协议。进而通过构建供应商、经销商与零售商之间博弈模型,分析发现企业更有动机发起相较于单层轴辐协议更稳定性的单轴双层轴辐协议。通过典型案例研究,发现在集中采购制度下,同一经销商与原料药生产企业和成品药企业更有动机达成单轴双层轴辐协议。在此基础上,从轴辐协议角度提出了完善相关反垄断立法和加强反垄断执法的建议。
关键词:单轴双层轴辐协议 合谋动机 合谋稳定性 药品集中采购 竞争政策
Mechanism and Competition Policy for Single Hub and Two-Layer Spoke Agreement
Zuo Yu Le Wang Yuwei Zhang
Abstract: Through the case study of hub and spoke agreement, it is found that the undertaking in the hub can not only coordinate the undertaking in the one-layer spoke but also coordinate the undertaking in the two-layer spoke to reach a horizontal agreement at the same time. By constructing the game model among suppliers, distributors and retailers, it is found that enterprises have stronger incentives to initiate the single hub and two-layer spoke agreement, which is more stable than the general hub and spoke agreement. Through the typical case study, it is also found that under the centralized procurement system, the distributor is more likely to reach a single hub and two-layer spoke agreement with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) manufacturer and the pharmaceutical manufacturer. Furthermore, it is suggested that the legislation and the anti-monopoly law enforcement should be strengthened and improved by the hub-and-spoke agreement especially the single hub and two-layer spoke agreement.
Keywords: Single Hub and Two-Layer Spoke Agreement Collusive Incentive Collusive Stability Centralized Pharmaceutical Procurement Competition Policy
JEL Classification: D43 L12
互联网平台企业估值中的数据造假对并购绩效的影响
吴昌南 王 进
摘 要:当前,互联网平台企业数据造假已成为行业潜规则,那么互联网平台企业估值中数据造假的机会主义行为对并购绩效有何影响?以2010—2020年互联网平台企业并购样本为研究对象,使用市场法估值,利用模糊物元模型和海明贴近度筛选与并购目标公司特征相似的可比公司,以资本市场上互联网平台企业估值为标尺,在挤干并购目标互联网平台企业的数据造假水分后,将估值中的数据造假与互联网平台企业并购绩效进行回归。结果显示:互联网平台企业数据造假的机会主义行为对主并企业并购绩效有负向影响,并购双方间的信息不对称越高,数据造假对并购绩效的负向影响越大。为此,应加强互联网平台领域的数据造假的规制。
关键词:互联网平台企业;数据造假;并购;并购绩效
The Impact of Data Fraud in the Valuation of Internet Platform Enterprises on M&A Performance
Changnan Wu Jin Wang
Abstract: At present, the data fraud of Internet platform enterprises has become an unspoken rule in the industry. What is the impact of the opportunistic behavior of data fraud in the valuation of Internet platform enterprises on the M&A performance? Taking the M&A samples of Internet platform enterprises from 2010 to 2020 as the research object, this paper uses the market method on valuation, uses the fuzzy matter element model and Haming close degree to screen the comparable companies with similar characteristics of the M&A target companies, takes the valuation of Internet platform enterprises in the capital market as the criterion, and after squeezing out the data fraud moisture of the M&A target Internet platform enterprises, This paper makes a regression analysis of data fraud in valuation and M&A performance of Internet platform enterprises. The results show that the opportunistic behavior of Internet platform enterprises' data fraud has a negative impact on M&A performance. The higher the information asymmetry between the two parties, the greater the negative impact of data fraud on M&A performance. Therefore, the regulation of data fraud in the field of Internet platforms should be strengthened.
Keywords: Internet Platform Enterprise Data Fraud Merger and Acquisition M&A Performance
JEL Classification: L86 D85
财政分权、区域创新与产业结构扭曲
刘金全 关帅
摘 要:本文在理论分析基础上测算2009-2020年地区产业结构扭曲程度,实证分析财政分权对产业结构扭曲的直接和间接影响。研究发现:(1) 我国产业结构还存在一定程度扭曲,省份差距明显,但总体上扭曲程度不断逐渐下降。财政分权对产业结构扭曲不但存在直接影响,还会通过区域创新对产业结构扭曲产生间接影响。(2) 财政分权对产业结构扭曲的直接效应和间接效应均存在区域异质性,东部地区的直接效应与间接效应均能改善产业结构扭曲状态,中部地区的直接效应与间接效应均不利于缓解产业结构失衡,而西部地区通过有效发挥区域创新的间接效应显著促进产业结构均衡发展。(3)财政分权对产业结构扭曲的影响表现出显著的门限效应,随着区域创新水平提升,财政分权对产业结构扭曲的消极影响逐渐降低。
关键词:财政分权 区域创新 产业结构 直接效应 间接效应 异质性 门限效应
Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Innovation and Distortion of
Industrial Structure
Jinquan Liu Shuai Guan
Abstract: On the basis of theoretical analysis, the degree of regional industrial structure distortion from 2007-2018 is measured, and the direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on industrial structure distortion are empirically analyzed through a panel tobit model. It is found that (1) China's industrial structure is still distorted to a certain extent, with obvious provincial disparities, but the overall degree of distortion keeps gradually decreasing. Fiscal decentralization not only has a direct impact on the distortion of industrial structure, but also has an indirect impact on the distortion of industrial structure through regional innovation. In other words, the increase of fiscal decentralization aggravates the distortion of industrial structure, but fiscal decentralization can effectively alleviate the distortion of industrial structure through the indirect effect of stimulating regional innovation. (2) The direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on industrial structural distortions are regionally heterogeneous. Both the direct and indirect effects in the eastern region can improve industrial structural distortions, while the direct and indirect effects in the central region are not conducive to alleviating industrial structural imbalances, while the western region significantly promotes the balanced development of industrial structure by effectively exerting the indirect effects of regional innovation. (3) The influence of fiscal decentralization on industrial structure distortion shows a significant threshold effect, and the negative influence of fiscal decentralization on industrial structure distortion gradually decreases as the level of regional innovation increases. In view of this, the future should optimize the fiscal decentralization system and stimulate regional innovation power to help optimize and upgrade the industrial structure.
Keywords:Fiscal Decentralization Regional Innovation Industrial Structure Direct Effect Indirect Effect Heterogeneity Threshold Effect
JEL Classification:C10 E60
智慧城市建设对经济韧性的提升效应:内在机制与经验证据
张志彬 陈卓 欧玲
摘 要:安全是发展的前提,发展是安全的保障。增强城市经济韧性、更好统筹发展和安全是新时代经济高质量发展的现实选择。基于国家智慧城市试点政策这一准自然实验,利用2008~2020年中国213个城市的面板数据,采用多期双重差分法审慎评估智慧城市建设能否提升城市经济韧性。研究发现:智慧城市建设能显著增强城市经济韧性,该结论通过了PSM-DID、安慰剂检验、替换被解释变量、排除相似政策干扰等多重稳健性检验,且政策效果的显现具有持续性和不断增强的特征。机制检验表明,智慧城市建设主要通过增强城市创新能力、促进城市金融发展以及推动城市产业升级等渠道提高城市经济韧性,并对邻近地区产生负向的空间溢出效应。异质性分析显示,智慧城市建设对大城市、东部城市以及高信息化水平城市经济韧性的提升效应更为明显。研究认为应合理扩大智慧城市建设范围,完善金融支撑体系,因城施策推进智慧城市,助推区域协调发展。
关键词:智慧城市 经济韧性 空间溢出 城市更新
The Enhancing Effect of Smart City Construction on Economic Resilience
—— Internal Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence
Zhibin Zhang Zhuo Chen Ling Ou
Abstract: Safety is the premise of development, and development is the guarantee of safety. Enhancing urban economic resilience and better integrating development and security are realistic choices for high-quality economic development in the new era. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of national smart city pilot policy, this paper critically assesses whether smart city construction can enhance urban economic resilience using a multi-period double difference method using panel data of 213 Chinese cities from 2008 to 2020. It is found that smart city construction can significantly enhance urban economic resilience, and the findings pass multiple robustness tests such as PSM-DID, placebo test, replacement of explanatory variables, and exclusion of similar policy disturbances, and the policy effects are characterized by persistence and continuous enhancement. The mechanism test shows that smart city construction mainly improves urban economic resilience through the channels of enhancing urban innovation capacity, promoting urban financial development, and promoting urban industrial upgrading, and generates negative spatial spillover effects on neighboring regions. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the enhancement effect of smart city construction on the economic resilience of large cities, eastern cities and cities with high information technology level is more obvious. The study concluded that the scope of smart city construction should be reasonably expanded, the financial support system should be improved, and smart cities should be promoted according to city policies to help promote coordinated regional development.
Keywords: Smart City Economic Resilience Spatial Spillover Urban Regeneration
JEL Classification:R11 P25
基于熵权TOPSIS方法的我国中医药旅游产业发展潜力研究
祁超萍
摘 要:随着居民对健康的日益重视,中医药旅游越来越受到欢迎。我国中医药旅游资源丰富,可开发的中医药旅游产品众多,但囿于诸多因素的影响,当前还处于发展初期。本文依据旅游系统模型构建了我国中医药旅游产业发展供给、需求、政策与保障四个维度的发展潜力评价指标。基于2019年31个省域的截面数据,采用熵权TOPSIS方法实证分析了我国中医药旅游产业发展潜力。研究结果显示,我国中医药旅游产业发展潜力各维度排名:需求潜力>政策潜力>供给潜力>保障潜力。采用SPSS27软件,对中医药旅游产业供给潜力、需求潜力、政策潜力、保障潜力和综合潜力进行聚类分析,全国31个省域划分为五级中医药旅游产业发展潜力区——强势区、优势区、一般区、较弱区和弱势区。据此,提出四力并举全方位夯实中医药旅游产业发展基础,因地制宜充分发挥各省域中医药旅游产业优势,加强区域协作切实提高中医药旅游产业发展水平的政策建议。
关键词:中医药旅游产业 发展潜力 熵权TOPSIS
Research on the Development Potential of Traditional Chinese Medicine Tourism Industry in China——Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS
Chaoping Qi
Abstract:With the increasing attention of residents to health, TCM tourism is becoming more and more popular. China is rich in traditional Chinese medicine tourism resources, and there are many TCM tourism products that can be developed, but it is still in the early stage of development due to the influence of many factors. Based on the tourism system model, this paper constructs the development potential evaluation indicators of supply, demand, policy and guarantee for the development of TCM tourism industry. Based on the cross-sectional data of 31 provinces in 2019, the entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to empirically analyze the development potential of TCM tourism industry. The results show that the development demand potential> policy potential> supply potential > guarantee potential of TCM tourism industry. Using SPSS27 software, supply potential, demand potential, policy potential, guarantee potential and comprehensive potential of the TCM tourism industry were clustered and analyzed, and the 31 provinces in the country were divided into five levels of TCM tourism industry development potential areas - strong area, advantage area, general area, weaker area and the weakest area. Accordingly,the four forces are put forward to consolidate the foundation for the development of the TCM tourism industry in an all-round way, give full play to the advantages of the TCM tourism industry in various provinces in accordance with local conditions, strengthen regional cooperation, and effectively improve the development level of the TCM tourism industry.
Keywords:Traditional Chinese Medicine Tourism Industry Development Potential Entropy Weight TOPSIS
JEL Classification:Z310 Z320
情感计算风险在数字行政治理中的扩张及其规制
高天书
摘 要:情感计算技术的运用有助于辅助政府提升服务能力,促进数字行政治理的能力提升与体系优化。基于国家治理对情感治理的重视,数字行政治理也必须着重关切情感计算之于行政治理的意义。[方法/过程]但囿于技术本身的特质与技术被滥用的可能,情感计算在数字行政治理中也存在诸多风险。需要在明确情感计算技术的运行逻辑基础之上,就其在数字行政治理中的风险点进行归纳、分析或者是预测,并在行政法治原则之下从技术本身以及技术运用两个层面上,通过法律手段规避其可能存在的风险。[结果/结论]为此,在针对情感计算技术本身上,需要为情感计算逻辑嵌入人机情感协同的规训维度、为情感计算迭代增设合理性与正当性要求。在技术的运用上,需要为信息权益保护赋予情感数据规制手段、为数字行政治理设置应用情感计算的标准与限度以及为情感计算应用划清价值底线与伦理禁区。
关键词:数字政府 行政法治 情感计算 公民隐私 权力膨胀
The Expansion and Regulation of Affective Computing Risks in Digital Administrative Governance
Tianshu Gao
Abstract: The application of affective computing technology is helpful to assist governments to improve their service capabilities and promote the ability improvement and system optimization of digital administrative governance. [Methodology/process] However, due to the inherent characteristics of the technology and the possibility of its misuse, there are also various risks associated with affective computing in digital administrative governance. On the one hand, there are risks related to the technology itself, which manifest as an increased risk of infringing on citizens' personal privacy when affective information, biological information, and personal privacy information overlap in the application of affective computing. On the other hand, there are risks of technology misuse, which manifest as the potential for excessive expansion of public power and the potential for manipulating citizens' personal emotions through the application of affective computing. [Outcome/conclusion] In view of this, it is necessary to avoid the possible risks of affective computing in digital administrative governance through legal means. In terms of affective computing technology itself, it is necessary to embed discipline dimensions of human-machine affective collaboration into the logic of affective computing and establish requirements for rationality and legitimacy in the iterative development of affective computing. In terms of its application, it is necessary to establish regulatory measures of affective data for the protection of information rights, set standards and limits for the application of affective computing in digital administrative governance, and define the value bottom line and ethical boundaries for the application of affective computing.
Keywords: Digital Government Administrative Rule of Law Affective Computing Citizen Privacy Power Expansion
JEL Classification: H83 C63 D91