Cracking the ICT Productivity Paradox：A Frontier Review from a Micro Perspective

Xiaogang He  Mengqing Hua

Abstract: With the large-scale application of the new generation of ICT such as artificial intelligence and robots in China, whether ICT can empower firms to promote TFP growth has become an important theoretical and practical issue. This paper sorts out the evolutionary trend of the ICT productivity paradox from the three levels of country, industry and firm. It is found that there is a clear distinction between macro studies based on countries and industries and micro studies based on firms. The former conclusion is uncertain, while the latter negates the existence of a paradox. Further, this paper summarizes the theoretical mechanism and path of cracking the paradox from a micro perspective. Only by matching complementary organizational behaviors and organizational resources, such as organizational structure, production process, innovation behavior and labor skills, can ICT investment effectively improve productivity. This complementary effect is an effective mechanism to bridge the gap between macro and micro research conclusions. Finally, from the perspective of government and firms, this paper gives the thoughts and countermeasures of optimizing the intelligent strategy of Chinese firms, and puts forward the further research direction.

Keywords: ICT  Productivity Paradox  Micro Perspective  Breakthrough Path  Total Factor Productivity

JEL Classification: D21  D24

学而优则“市”？

----学历高级化对创业意愿的影响及其作用机制研究*

傅联英  骆品亮

摘 要：本文首先分析揭示了学历高级化影响创业意愿的作用机理，构建起机会成本、社会资本、认知能力、风险态度四项渠道组成的综合机制；在考虑内生性的基础上，本文利用中国家庭金融调查数据识别学历高级化对创业意愿的因果性影响、运用因果中介效应分析方法检验其作用机制。基准模型结果发现，学历高级化对创业意愿产生了负向因果性影响，该结论在多项检验中均表现稳健。异质性分析结果显示，学历高级化对非海龟群体、二本和三本高校毕业群体、缺乏家庭创业传承（父母均未创业）群体、东西部群体、城镇群体的创业意愿产生了抑制效应，对海龟群体、一本高校毕业群体、农村地区人群的创业意愿则产生了强化效应。机制分析表明，学历高级化正是通过上述四项渠道构成的平行机制显著地影响创业意愿，且由于机会成本渠道的负向效应强于后三项渠道的正向效应之和，学历高级化对创业意愿的净效应表现为负。研究结论对明确大众创业的主体、推进创业政策的完善具有启发意义。

关键词：教育获得  创业意愿  机会成本  社会资本  认知能力  风险态度

Is a Good Learner More Likely to Become an Entrepreneur? A Study on the Impact and Mechanism of Higher Education Attainment on Entrepreneurship

Lianying Fu  Pinliang Luo

Abstract: The impact of higher education attainment on entrepreneurship was analyzed through four channels, i.e. opportunity cost, social capital, cognitive ability and risk attitude. Both China Family Finance Survey data and Causal Mediation Effect Analysis method were employed to identify the causality between education attainment and entrepreneurial willingness. The benchmark model suggests a negative causal effect of education attainment on entrepreneurial willingness, and the negative effect is robust to various checks. Results of heterogeneity analysis show that higher education attainments have a suppressive effect on the entrepreneurial willingness of the eastern, the western, the urban, the students with non-overseas degrees, the graduates from the second and third batch of universities and those short of family entrepreneurship, but have a positive effect on that of the rural, the students with overseas degrees and the domestic graduates from the first batch of universities. Findings of causal mediation effect analysis suggest that the impact of education attainment on entrepreneurship is precisely through the parallel mechanism of opportunity cost, social capital, cognitive ability and risk attitude. Since the negative magnitude of opportunity cost is much stronger than the aggregated positive magnitude of the latter three, the net effect of higher education attainment on entrepreneurship is negative. The conclusions of this study are instructive for clarifying the main body of mass entrepreneurship and promoting the improvement of entrepreneurial policies.

Keywords: Education Attainment  Entrepreneurial Willingness  Opportunity Cost  Social Capital  Cognitive Ability  Risk Attitude

JEL Classification：I20  J23  J24  M13

比较优势陷阱、创新偏差与后发大国全球价值链突破

——一个新的理论视角与经验证据

石军伟

摘 要：本文构建了国家“等竞争优势曲线”模型，分析了发达国家主导的全球价值链治理机制使后发大国陷入“比较优势陷阱”的理论机理。其中，发达国家对先进技术转移的阻断带来的“产业消解”是后发国家陷入全球价值链突破困境的现实基础。论文提出了“创新偏差”这一工具性概念，构建了后发大国突破全球价值链的非线性路径空间，并从政策导向、市场需求、技术差距、组织战略等多个层次论述了后发大国新兴产业“创新偏差”的决定机制。对通信设备制造业代表企业——中国华为技术有限公司全球价值链创新突破实践进行了案例研究，结果证明了该框架的有效性。本文建议后发大国应该摆脱传统的线性升级路径，通过有效培育本土市场需求、积极建设产业基础技术体系、持续的技术研发投资、构建“双引擎模式”、世界级的管理创新体系等多元途径，不断积聚破坏性创新能力，缩短创新偏差，提升非价格竞争力，最终成功实现全球价值链突破。

关键词：比较优势陷阱  创新偏差  全球价值链  华为  后发大国

Comparative Advantage Trap, Innovation Bias and the Breakthrough of Global Value Chain of Developing Countries: A New Perspective and Empirical Evidence

Junwei Shi

Abstract: The Iso-competitive-advantage model is developed in this study to analyze the theoretical mechanism of “comparative advantage trap” that developing countries fall into when they join the global value chain that is dominated by developed countries. Industrial fragmentation caused by the interruption of technology transfer by advanced countries features the practical basis that makes developing countries in the dilemma of global value chain. Innovation bias was created to construct the non-linear trajectory space which developing countries can choose to break through the global value chain. The determinants of innovation bias are discussed from varied lens of market demand, policy orientation, technological distance and organization strategy. The case study on Huawei is utilized to examine the significance of the theoretical framework. Several policy implications to cast away the traditional linear upgrading trajectory are put forward, such as cultivating domestic demand, developing industrial basic system of technology, increasing technological R&D investment and world-leading management innovation system and so on, to accumulate the capability of disruptive innovation, narrow innovation bias, raise non-price competitiveness, and obtain successful breakthrough of global value chain eventually.

Keywords: Comparative Advantage Trap Innovation Bias Global Value Chain

Huawei Large Developing Country

JEL Classification: F63 O32 O38 O14

低碳城市政策对产业结构的影响：一个准自然实验的视角

 逯进  刘璐  王晓飞

摘　要：以低碳城市试点的设立作为准自然实验，基于2003-2016年中国223个地级市数据讨论了低碳城市政策对产业结构的作用机制。结果显示，（1）低碳城市政策的实行会显著抑制第二产业、促进第三产业的发展，以此有效促进了产业结构升级。同时，这一政策具有明确的正向空间溢出效应。（2）在考虑到环保约谈、中国制造2025以及新能源试点等其它相关政策影响后，虽然低碳城市政策对产业结构的影响有所减弱，但其正向影响依然十分显著。（3）低碳城市政策会通过经济绩效考核、技术创新、绿色消费观念等中介变量影响产业结构水平。然而政策所带来的产业升级效应是建立在一定的市场基础之上的，市场力量是此政策发挥作用的前提。

关键词：低碳城市政策　产业结构优化　准自然实验

The impact of low-carbon city policies on industrial structure: a quasi-natural experimental perspective

Jin Lu  Lu Liu  XiaoFei Wang

Abstract: based on the data of 223 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016, this paper discusses the mechanism of the effect of low-carbon city policies on industrial structure, taking the establishment of low-carbon city pilot as a quasi-natural experiment. The results show that (1) the implementation of low-carbon city policy will significantly inhibit the secondary industry and promote the development of the tertiary industry, thus effectively promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, this policy has a definite positive spatial spillover effect. (2) after taking into account the impact of other relevant policies, such as environmental interviews, made in China 2025 and new energy pilot, although the impact of low-carbon city policies on industrial structure is somewhat weakened, its positive impact is still very significant. (3) low-carbon city policies will influence the level of industrial structure through intermediary variables such as economic performance appraisal, technological innovation and green consumption concept. However, the industrial upgrading effect brought by the policy is built on a certain market basis, and market forces are the prerequisite for the policy to play its role.

Keywords: Low-Carbon City Policy; Industrial Structure Optimization; Quasi-Natural Experiment

JEL Classification: Q51  L16  R12

共享经济产业理论进展综述

汪红梅 王万力 李瑞海

摘  要：本文追踪了共享经济产业理论研究进展，重点对共享经济产业结构、市场行为、产业绩效以及公共政策等四个方面进行了综述。在产业结构方面，重点阐述了共享经济的点对点、互联网＋、平台形态和协作消费等结构特征。在市场行为方面，重点对共享经济的平台经济学特征进行分析，包括平台由最初的双边市场发展到多边市场，价值形态由传统经济的所有权交换过渡到价值分享的使用权消费，平台之间的竞争以及平台内买卖双方之间的竞争，共享经济采用平台竞争策略，即买卖双方双向补贴的市场策略。共享经济产业绩效评价需要考虑经济效益和社会效益两方面，其中契约协调是评价经济效益的关键，而目前的共享经济产业成熟度低，企业行为不够规范，产业组织之间存在垄断和不公平竞争，行业监管不力，存在隐私泄露和市场歧视等问题。该研究一方面梳理了共享经济产业理论研究脉络，同时对共享经济的产业监管政策也有重要的借鉴意义。

关键词：共享经济 产业结构 市场行为 产业绩效 公共政策

A Review of Industrial Theory of Sharing Economy

Hongmei Wang  Wanli Wang  Ruihai Li

Abstract: This paper tracks the research progress of sharing economy industry theory, and focuses on four aspects: industry structure, market behavior, industry performance and public policy. In terms of industrial structure, it focuses on the structural characteristics of the sharing economy, such as point-to-point, Internet +, platform form and collaborative consumption. In terms of market behavior, it focuses on the analysis of platform economics characteristics of the sharing economy. The platform develops from the original bilateral market to the current multilateral market, and the value pattern changes from the traditional ownership exchange to the consumption of the right to share the value, the competition between platforms and the competition between buyers and sellers within the platform. The sharing economy adopts the platform competition strategy, that is, the market strategy of two-way subsidy between buyers and sellers. The performance evaluation of sharing economy industry needs to consider both economic benefits and social benefits. Among them, contract coordination is the key to evaluate the economic benefits. However, the current sharing economy industry is characterized by low maturity, insufficiently standardized enterprise behaviors, monopoly and unfair competition among industrial organizations, weak industry supervision, privacy disclosure and market discrimination. On the one hand, this research has sorted out the research context of sharing economy industry theory, and on the other hand, it has important reference significance to the industrial supervision policy of sharing economy.

Keywords: Sharing Economy  Industry Structure  Market Behavior   Industry Performance  Public Policy

JEL Classification: L10  L52

中国对欧OFDI逆向技术溢出效应研究

—基于贸易增加值的视角

高运胜  张海钰鸣  李之旭

摘　要：欧盟作为中国对外直接投资（OFDI）最大目的地，中国对欧盟直接投资逆向技术溢出效应是一个值得深入探讨的问题。论文梳理了OFDI逆向技术溢出对贸易增加值产生促进的理论机制，并针对中国投资欧盟展开经验验证。研究结果表明两者存在显著的正向影响，同时随着中国企业融入全球生产网络程度不断加深，中欧垂直专业化分工（VSS）水平提升了我国行业的国际市场竞争力。细分行业来看，逆向技术溢出效应对制造业国内增加值出口具有显著的正向影响，但是不利于生产性服务业的发展。论文从培养对欧盟OFDI多元化投资主体，完善国内价值链，推进国内生产性服务业发展等视角提出对策建议。

关键词：OFDI　逆向技术溢出　国内增加值　垂直专业化分工　竞争优势

The Study of Reverse Technology Spillover Effect on China's OFDI in EU -Based on the Perspective of Value Added in Trade

Yunsheng Gao  Haiyuming Zhang  Zhixu Li

Abstract：As the largest destination of Chinese OFDI, whether the reverse technology spillover of China's direct investment to the EU will increase the domestic added value (DVA) of China's exports is a question worthy of further discussion.. This paper summarizes the theoretical mechanism of OFDI reverse technology spillover promoting value added in trade., and has empirical verification based on Chinese investment in EU. The research results show that they have significant positive effects. Meanwhile, with the deepening of Chinese enterprises' integration into the global production network, the level of Sino-European vertical specialization (VSS) has improved the international market competitiveness of Chinese industries.  Considering the classification of industries, the reverse technology spillover effect has a significant positive impact on the domestic added value of manufacturing exports, but hinders the development of producer services. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of cultivating diversified investors in OFDI, improving the domestic value chain system, and promoting the development of domestic producer services.

Keywords：OFDI  Reverse Technology Spillover  Domestic Value Added  Vertical Specialization Competitive Advantage

JEL Classification：F21  E29