新中国70周年国家产业政策变迁
马宇 张扬
摘 要:1949年以来,中国产业政策紧随经济环境不断变迁。中国产业政策目标也由“赶英超美”到调整产业结构、提升国际竞争力。对各时期政策总结后发现,功能性产业政策作用逐渐加强,产业政策工具由行政命令向财政、金融等多种工具发展。产业结构政策从促进产业增量扩能转变为提高产业发展质量,重点产业不断升级,与配第规则一致。通过回顾新中国成立以来中国产业政策发展历程,并根据经济环境和重点产业的变化,将产业政策分为重工业优先发展时期、传统体制转型初期、体制改革深化阶段和新常态时期,分别阐述各时期政策内容与特点。最后总结产业政策演变的规律与特征,提出政策建议。
关键词:产业政策 五年计划 产业升级 市场化 去产能
The Transition of National Industrial Policy on the 70th Anniversary of China
Yu Ma Yang Zhang
Abstract: Since 1949, China's industrial policy has changed from heavy industry priority to comprehensive industrial policy with national strategic emerging industry center, following the continuous changes of economic environment. After summarizing the policies of different periods, it is found that the function of functional industrial policy is gradually strengthened, and the tools of industrial policy are developed from administrative orders to financial and other instruments. The industrial structure policy has changed from promoting industrial increment and capacity expansion to improving the quality of industrial development and upgrading key industries. This paper reviews the four stages of China's industrial policy since the founding of China, summarizes the laws and characteristics of industrial policy evolution from the perspective of the five-year plan, and finally puts forward policy recommendations.
Keywords:Industrial Policy Five-Year Plan Industrial Upgrading Marketization De-productivity
JEL Classification: L16 L52
城市产业的就业扩张对个体创业活动的影响研究
郑筱婷 刘雨萌 蔡禹豪
摘 要:本文阐述了产业扩张对创业行为影响的理论机制,通过研究宏观经济创业环境因素与个体创业活动的关系,进一步拓展了创业研究。利用CFPS数据和地级市层面的分产业就业扩张数据,探究城市产业扩张对生存型创业和机会型创业的影响。研究表明,中间服务行业的扩张对机会型创业和生存型创业均产生了显著的负向影响;新兴服务行业的扩张对机会型创业产生了显著的负向影响;第二产业的扩张对生存型创业产生了显著的负向影响;传统服务行业扩张对生存型和机会型个体选择创业并没有产生显著影响。总的来说,产业的就业扩张会抑制个体的创业意愿。高质量的就业机会增加与创业对于经济稳定发展都很重要。
关键词:机会型创业 生存型创业 产业扩张 产业的就业扩张
A Research on the Impacts of Employment Expansion of Urban Industries on Individual Entrepreneurship
Xiaoting Zheng Yumeng Liu Yuhao Cai
Abstract: This paper proposes the mechanisms of how industrial employment expansion affects individual entrepreneurship and supplements the existing literature by investigating the relationship between macroeconomic environmental factors and individual entrepreneurship. Using CFPS data and employment expansion data of industries at prefecture city level, this paper explores the impacts of industrial expansion on entrepreneurship. The results indicate that the expansion of the intermediary service industry has a significant negative impact on both necessity entrepreneurship and opportunity entrepreneurship; the expansion of emerging service industries has had a significant negative impact on opportunity entrepreneurship; the expansion of the secondary industry has had a significant negative impact on necessity entrepreneurship; the expansion of traditional service industries does not have a significant impact on both entrepreneurship. In general, the expansion of the industrial employment will reduce the willingness of an individual to start an entrepreneurship. Both high-quality employment opportunities and entrepreneurship are important for sustainable economic development.
Keywords: Opportunity Entrepreneurship Necessity Entrepreneurship Industrial Expansion Employment Expansion
JEL Classification:D21 J23 L60 L80
基于ARIMA和GM(1,1)模型的煤炭市场需求预测研究
姜春海 闫振好 宋志永
摘 要:“富煤贫油少气”的能源禀赋决定了煤炭在中国能源生产和消费中的绝对主导地位,但长期大量使用煤炭导致了严重的环境问题,东部沿海经济发达地区的生态压力尤为突出,“控煤”已经成为各界共识和现实政策。分析煤炭消费现状,预测未来煤炭需求,是统筹煤炭消费减量替代与经济发展、环境保护的基础和起点。本文从行业、区域等角度分析了中国煤炭消费的主要特点,进而采用ARIMA模型、GM(1,1)模型与组合预测模型,对全国及京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区2017年-2025年煤炭消费需求总量进行了预测,发现全国2020年煤炭消费总量能够达到预定目标,但仍面临煤炭消费需求不断扩大的压力;京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区的煤炭消费需求总体上都呈现缓慢持续下降趋势,其中珠三角地区煤炭消费总量和减少速度都最为理想,京津冀地区次之,长三角地区煤炭消费总量和减少速度都不理想。最后,本文提出了加大节煤减排力度,进一步淘汰落后产能,严控煤炭增量消费,促进煤炭的清洁利用,鼓励煤炭消费终端“煤改气”、“煤改电”与清洁能源消费,禁煤和能源替代等政策逐步由京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区向其他重点城市和省区推广的政策建议。
关键词:煤炭消费 煤炭需求预测 高耗煤产业 节煤减排
Research on Coal Market Demand Forecast Based on ARIMA and GM (1,1) Models
Chunhai Jiang Zhenhao Yan Zhiyong Song
Abstract:The energy endowment of "coal-rich and poor oil and gas" determines the absolute dominant position of coal in China's energy production and consumption, but the long-term heavy use of coal has led to serious environmental problems, especially the ecological pressure in the economically developed areas along the eastern coast, and "coal control" has become a consensus and realistic policy from all walks of life. Analyzing the current situation of coal consumption and predicting the future coal demand are the basis and starting point for coordinating coal consumption reduction substitution and economic development and environmental protection. This paper analyzes the main characteristics of Coal consumption in China from the perspective of industry, region and so on, and then uses ARIMA model, GM (1,1) model and combination prediction model to forecast the total coal consumption demand in 2017-2025 for the whole country and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. It is found that the total coal consumption in 2020 can reach the target, but still face the pressure of expanding coal consumption demand, and the coal consumption demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region in general show a slow and continuous downward trend, of which the total coal consumption and reduction rate in the Pearl River Delta region are the most ideal, The total amount of coal consumption and the rate of reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta region are not ideal. Finally, this paper proposes to increase coal-saving emission reduction efforts, further eliminate backward production capacity, strictly control the incremental consumption of coal, promote the clean use of coal, encourage coal consumption terminals "coal to gas", "coal to electricity" and clean energy consumption, policies such as coal ban area and energy substitution will be gradually extended by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions to other key cities and provinces.
Keywords: Coal Consumption Coal Demand Forecast High Coal Consumption Industry Coal-Saving Emission Reduction
JET Classification: E27 L51 O13
中国高铁经济研究的现状、演进与趋势
吕健 刘静静
摘 要:借助可视化软件CiteSpace科学知识图谱,对1992-2019年3月中国知网期刊数据库的1954篇高铁经济研究的相关文献进行计量分析,以探索中国高铁经济研究的基本现状、历史演进与发展趋势,为未来的深入研究提供基础。研究发现:区域经济是该领域研究历来关注度最高的主题;自2016年以来,“一带一路”成为最新热点;高铁经济研究经历了摸索起步阶段(1992-2007年)、广泛求证阶段(2008-2015年)和引领发展阶段(2016年至今);未来研究的热点发展趋势将围绕高铁经济的开放实践、区域融合、生态契合和社会效益等4大领域展开。
关键词:高铁经济 研究现状 演进趋势
Status, Evolution and Trend of High-Speed Rail Economic Research in China
Jian Lv Jingjing Liu
Abstract: The paper makes a quantitative analysis of 1954 papers on high-speed rail economic research in Journal Database of China National Knowledge Internet from 1992 to March 2019 with the help of the visualization software CiteSpace, in order to explore the status, evolution and trend of high-speed rail economic research in China and to provide a basis for further research. The result shows that the highest attention of the subjects in this field is paid to "regional economy". Since 2016, the subject of "One Belt and One Road" has become the latest hotspot. The research on high-speed rail economy has experienced the initial exploration stage (1992 to 2007), the extensive verification stage (2008 to 2015) and the leading development stage (from 2016 to now). The growing trend of future researches will revolve around the following four major areas: opening practice, regional integration, ecological fit and social benefits of the high-speed rail economy.
Keywords: High-speed Rail Economy Research Status Evolution Trend
JEL Classification: L92 R40
中国中部区域承接国内产业转移进程中的碳排放转移测度
邓荣荣 李亚芳
摘 要:随着中国经济结构调整与产业转型升级步伐的加速,经济发达区域相关产业向中部区域链条式、整体式和集群式转移的趋势也日益明显,针对中部区域承接国内产业转移进程中可能引致的碳排放转入问题,论文基于区域间投入产出模型测度与分析了2002-2017年中部区域承接国内产业转移进程中的碳排放转移规模、净流向与特征,并对区域间产业净转入是否必然引致碳排放净转入进行实证探讨。结果表明:①2012年前后中部区域承接国内产业转移与由此引致的碳排放转移呈现不同的态势,中部区域产业净流入与由此引致的碳排放净转入在2012年后凸显;②中部区域在产业转移与碳排放转移上均体现日益明显的承东启西区位作用,除承接来自经济发达区域产业净转出与碳排放净转出外,向西北和西南区域净转出了大量数额产业与碳排放;③分区域而言,中部区域对各区域产业净转出(入)规模和流向与由此引致的碳排放净转出(入)流向规模和流向并非一致,产业净转出并非必然引致碳排放净转出,这一结果产生的主要原因在于各区域间分产业碳排放系数存在较大差异。在此基础上提出了中部区域承接产业转移进程中有效规避碳排放净转入的政策建议。
关键词:中部区域 产业转移 碳排放转移 区域间投入产出表
CO2 Emissions Transfer in Central Region Induced by Undertaking Inter-Regional Industry Transfer
Rongrong Deng Yafang Li
Abstract: With the acceleration of
China
’s economic structure adjustment and industrial upgrading, the trend of transferring of industries in the developed regions to the central region is becoming increasingly evident. This paper analyzed the scale of carbon emissions, net flows and characteristics in progress of the undertaking the domestic industry transfer of the central region, and made an empirical discussion of whether the inter-regional net industrial transfer will inevitably lead to the net carbon emissions transfer. Results show that: (1) the transfer of domestic industries and carbon emissions in the central region have shown different trends around 2012, The net inflow of industries and net inflow of carbon emissions in the central region and the resulting have been significantly enhanced since 2012; (2) in addition to the net transfer of industries and carbon emissions from developed regions. a large amount of industry and carbon emissions have been transferred from the central region to the northwest and southwest regions; (3) in terms of sub regions, the scale and direction of net transfer of the industries in the central region are not Inconsistent with its the scale and direction of carbon emissions; (4) the differences in the carbon emission coefficient of sub-industries among regions are main reasons for the flow and scale of net industrial transfer non-conformity with the net transfer of carbon emissions, which is also the key to effectively reducing and avoiding the net transfer of carbon emissions during the process of industrial transfer.
Keywords: Central Region Industrial Transfer Carbon Emission Transfer Inter-regional Input output Table
JEL Classification: C52 C67 E61
产品吸引力、全要素生产率与企业出口市场份额
邢洁 刘国亮
摘 要:本文通过建立理论模型分析了产品吸引力和生产率两个维度的企业异质性对企业出口市场份额的影响和相对重要性。利用2000-2006年中国海关数据库与中国工业企业数据库以及联合国商品贸易统计数据库的匹配数据,通过估计得到企业层面代表产品吸引力的需求指数和全要素生产率,通过计算得到企业在出口目的地的市场份额,对我国12个具有代表性的制造业行业进行验证。实证结果与理论预测相一致,产品吸引力和生产率都在解释企业出口市场份额时发挥了重要作用。通过检验产品吸引力和生产率与企业在出口目的地的市场份额之间的关系得出:替代品越少、增加产品吸引力的边际成本越小,增加产品吸引力越有利于扩大企业出口市场份额;替代品越多、增加产品吸引力的边际成本越大,提高生产率以降低成本来扩大企业出口市场份额的效果越明显。
关键词:产品吸引力 全要素生产率 需求弹性 成本弹性 企业出口市场份额
Product Appeal, Total Factor Productivity and Export Market Share
Jie Xing Guoliang Liu
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to analyze the roles and the relative importance of two dimensions of firm heterogeneity, product appeal and productivity, in the export market share of firms. We use data on both trade and production for a sample of large Chinese firms in twelve manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2006 to estimate an empirical model of export demand, pricing and export market share. Our empirical results confirm the predictions of the theoretical model. Both product appeal and productivity are important to explain firm export market share. We also examine the correlation among product appeal, productivity and export market share. The results indicate that product appeal contributes more for firms in more differentiated product markets and with lower marginal cost of product appeal improvements while productivity effects are stronger in markets with lower degrees of product differentiation and higher marginal cost of product appeal improvements.
Keywords: Product Appeal Total Factor Productivity Demand Elasticity Cost Elasticity Export Market Share
JEL Classification: F14 L11 L15
国际经济政策不确定性是否加剧稳就业难度?
程诺 蒋灵多
摘 要:现阶段中国就业总量压力不减、结构性矛盾凸显,做好稳就业工作刻不容缓。随着全球经济政策不确定性指数不断上升,中国面临的外部环境发生了深刻变化。中国在世界经济的深度融入使得国际经济政策不确定性对中国经济发展的溢出效应愈发明显。本文基于2000-2007年中国制造业企业面板数据探讨了国际经济政策不确定性对中国就业的溢出效应,旨在为中国实现就业的稳定性和高质量就业提供政策建议。研究发现:国际经济政策不确定性提高会通过出口贸易和外商直接投资机制致使中国就业规模下降。劳动密集型行业企业、出口企业和国有企业的就业更易受到国际经济政策不确定性的不利冲击。此外,国际经济政策不确定性提升对中国就业质量和结构也产生了负面影响,导致企业平均工资降低,性别就业差距增加。
关键词:国际经济政策不确定性 就业规模 就业质量 就业结构
Does the International Economic Policy Uncertainty Make It More Difficult to Stabilize Employment?
Nuo Cheng Lingduo Jiang
Abstract: At the present stage, China's total employment pressure remains unabated and structural problems are prominent. As the index of global economic policy uncertainty continues to rise, the external environment China faced has undergone profound changes. China's deep integration into the world economy makes the spillover effect of international economic policy uncertainty on China's economic development more obvious. Based on the panel data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2000 to 2007, this paper aims to discuss the spillover effect of international economic policy uncertainty on employment in China, so that we can provide policy suggestions to achieve employment stability and high-quality employment in China. The study finds that the increase of international economic policy uncertainty will lead to the decrease of employment in China through the mechanism of exports and foreign direct investment. Employment in labor-intensive enterprises, export enterprises and state-owned enterprises is more vulnerable to the adverse impact of international economic policy uncertainty. In addition, the increased uncertainty of international economic policies has also had a negative impact on the quality and structure of employment in China, resulting in lower average wages and an increasing gender employment gap.
Keywords: International Economic Policy Uncertainty Employment Scale Employment Quality Employment Structure
JEL Classification: E24 E60