互联网技术驱动下的中国制造业结构优化升级研究
徐伟呈
摘 要:本文通过梳理技术进步理论,探索出驱动制造业结构优化升级的互联网技术进步路径,剖析了不同路径对结构合理化和高度化的影响机理。在此基础上,使用“文本挖掘法”建立有关“互联网制造”指数的定量测度方法,利用2003-2015年中国制造业30个行业的大中型工业企业数据,使用岭回归实证考察了互联网技术通过不同路径对中国制造业结构调整的影响。研究发现,自我积累基础上的自主创新路径只能促进制造业结构趋于合理化;互联网技术扩散路径能在一定程度上推动制造业结构趋于合理,并实现结构高度化;互联网技术引进基础上的自主创新路径能驱动制造业结构同时实现合理化和高度化,且影响作用也最大,因而是驱动制造业结构优化升级的最优路径。然而,这一进程可能伴随着制造业中高端技术行业低附加值的趋势,并且互联网技术进步对制造业结构调整的影响具有时滞效应。
关键词:制造业结构 优化升级 自主创新 互联网技术扩散 互联网+制造
Research on Optimization and Upgrading of Chinese
Manufacturing Structure Driven by Internet Technology
Weicheng Xu
Abstract: Based on theory of technological progress, this paper explores the paths of internet technology progress which drive optimization and upgrading of manufacturing structure, and analyzes the effect mechanism of different paths on rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing structure. On this basis, this paper provides the quantitative measurement of “Internet Manufacturing” index by data envelopment analysis, and does empirical research on the effect of internet technology on manufacturing structural adjustment through different paths in use of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises data of 30 industries of China's manufacturing in 2003-2015 years by ridge regression. The results show that independent innovation based on self-accumulation can only promote rationalization of manufacturing structure. Internet technology diffusion can promote rationalization of manufacturing structure to a certain extent, and realize structural upgrading. Independent innovation on the basis of introduction of internet technology can not only drive rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing structure, but also make the biggest impact, therefore it’s the optimal path to drive optimization and upgrading of manufacturing structure. However, this process may be accompanied by a low value-added trend in the high technology industry, and internet technology also has a time lag effect on manufacturing structural adjustment.
Keywords: Manufacturing Structure Optimization and Upgrading Independent Innovation Internet Technology Diffusion Internet plus Manufacturing
JEL Classification: L60 O33 C30
跨国代工企业的空间转移与结构转型
-----基于宝成工业的案例研究
许德友 项松林
摘 要:跨国代工企业具有逐低成本而转移和随价值链变迁而转型的特征,通过台湾宝成工业(集团)空间转移和结构转型的案例分析,本文认为,代工企业擅长制造生产和委托设计,同样能形成独特的不可替代的市场竞争优势。跨国代工企业保持竞争优势有两个主要来源,即产业链条的空间转移和结构转型,“双转”巩固并强化了代工企业低成本、高效率、全配套的制造优势以及近市场、利出口、善互动的市场优势。这启示着中国大型代工企业发展路径应该是“两条腿走路”:在挖掘中国区域比较优势的基础上,既会通过核心技术的研发和市场品牌的打造从代工生产转向自主品牌,也能通过功能升级和产业链整合形成可与委托商相博弈的谈判地位。映射到产业政策上,要利用市场的力量因势利导推动代工企业横向和纵向整合,在更大空间范围内更有效地促进产业转移,在更长产业链条中更深入地加速结构转型,增强我国代工企业在全球价值链中的话语权。
关键词:代工企业 空间转移 结构转型 宝成工业
Spatial Transfer and Structural Transformation of Transnational OEMs:A Case Study of POU CHEN Group
Deyou Xu Songlin Xiang
Abstract: Transnational OEMs are characterized by shifted at low cost and with the transformation of value chain changes. Through the case analysis of Taiwan's POU CHEN Group in space transfer and structural transformation,This paper argues that OEMs are good at manufacturing and commissioned designs, and it can form unique and irreplaceable market competitive advantages. The OEMs maintain a competitive advantage from two aspects: the spatial transformation and structural transformation of the industrial chain, which consolidates and strengthens the advantages of low-cost, high-efficiency, all-inclusive manufacturing advantages and near-market, export and good interaction. This suggests that China's development path for large-scale OEMs should be "walking on two legs": on the basis of tapping China's regional comparative advantages, both through the core technology research and market brand building from OEM production to independent brands, but also through the functional upgrade and industrial chain integration can be formed with the commissioner of the game of the status of the negotiations.In industrial policy, we should use the power of the market to promote the horizontal and vertical integration of OEMs, promote industrial transfer in the larger space, accelerate the structural transformation in the longer industry chain, and enhance the position of Chinese OEMs in global value.
Keywords: OEM Space Transfer Structural Transformation POU CHEN Group
JEL Classification: L16 F23
基于利润弹性指标的中国银行业市场结构实证分析
吉敏 邢天才 王文钢
摘 要:尽管中国的利率市场化已基本完成,但尚处于后利率市场化过渡期。回顾中国利率市场化进程,为研究尚存利率管制的新兴市场经济体提供理论和现实证据。与此同时,观察银行业市场竞争的演变,有利于洞悉金融改革和防范系统性风险的方向,也有利于探寻金融去杠杆的着力点。为此,本文以中国银行市场为研究对象,以2006-2015年银行数据为样本,利用利润弹性指标对银行业整体和不同类型银行群竞争程度做了测算。结果表明利润弹性指标较传统指标可能更具合理性、适用性和准确性;中国贷款市场在2011年以后竞争度小幅下降;不同类型银行竞争程度存在差异。从理论上为金融产业组织研究、中国银行业市场差异化竞争与监管提供参考。
关键词:市场结构 利润弹性指标 边际成本
An Empirical Analysis on
Banking Market Structure of China Based on Profit Elasticity Indicator
Min Ji Tiancai Xing Wengang Wang
Abstract: Although the Interest rate liberalization in China has been basically completed, it is still in post-transitional period. Reviewing China’s interest rate liberalization is helpful to research and understanding those emerging marketing economies which are under interest rate control. Looking at the evolution of the competitive degree in banking is also helpful to explore the direction and gravity of banks’ transformation. Therefore, taking the bank data from 2006 to 2015 as samples, using the profit elasticity index to measure the competition degree, we do research on the Chinese banking loan market. The result shows that in emerging market economies, where interest rates are still regulated, the index of profit elasticity is more applicable and more accurate than traditional indicators. We can see that China's banking sector, represented by the lending market, has a slight decline in competition since 2011, with varying levels of competition for different types of banks. We hope to provide empirical evidence for research on financial industrial organazation, market differentiation competition and regulation.
Keywords: Market Structure Profit Elasticity Indicator Marginal Cost
JEL Classification: G21 L11
逆向选择与伯川德竞争下两期保险准分离均衡
刘喜华 李聪 王国宏
摘 要:多期保险作为单期保险自选机制的一种补充,是一种重要的动态风险分类方法,有利于规避逆向选择风险。在伯川德竞争假设下,研究两期保险准分离均衡存在的充要条件,建立了两期保险问题的不完全信息动态博弈模型,在分析投保人的激励相容约束以及个人合理性约束的基础上,推导出准分离均衡存在的充要条件,得到完全分离均衡与准分离均衡不可能同时存在的结论,并对均衡结果进行了边际分析。
关键词:逆向选择 准分离均衡 两期保险 伯川德竞争
The Semi-Separating Equilibrium of Two-Stage Insurance under Bertrand Competition and Adverse Selection
Xihua Liu Cong Li Guohong Wang
Abstract: Multi-period insurance as a supplement of self-selection mechanism of single-period insurance is an important dynamic risk classification methods, which is helpful to avoid the risk of adverse selection. Under the hypotheses of Bertrand competition, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the semi-separating equilibrium of two-stage insurance are studied. Firstly, the two-stage insurance incomplete information dynamic game model is established. And then, by analyzing the policyholders’ incentive compatibility constraint and individual rationality constraint, the necessary and sufficient conditions for semi-separating equilibrium are deduced, it is concluded that the fully separating equilibrium and the semi-separating equilibrium can not exist at the same time. At last, the marginal analysis to the semi-separating equilibrium is given.
Keywords:Adverse Selection Semi-Separating Equilibrium Two-Stage Insurance Bertrand Competition
JEL Classification: G22 C70
西部大开发政策影响企业生产率的财税效应研究
季永宝 吴辉航 刘 潇 豆建民
摘 要:诸多文献对西部大开发政策实施效果进行了客观评价,但鲜有研究提出并解释西部大开发政策影响企业生产率的财税政策效应,以及财税政策如何影响企业而达到“落地”效果的微观机制。本文从区域经济增长的源泉——企业TFP的角度切入,将西部大开发政策影响企业TFP的作用机制总结为财政补贴效应和税收优惠效应,在此基础上,提出并解释了西部大开发政策边界线西部企业TFP反超之谜。使用1998-2007年工业企业数据,采用边界匹配的双重差分法进行实证检验,研究发现:西部大开发政策明显提升了政策边界线西部市(县)企业的TFP,平均提升西部市(县)企业的TFP达7%(12.2%);机制识别检验结果显示,财政补贴政策具有“补贴诅咒”效应,直接性财政补贴并不能增加企业TFP,而减税政策则对TFP提升具有显著作用;异质性检验结果表明,西部大开发政策吸引了更多的民企和外企,使得国企盈利能力下降;最后,通过各种方法进一步验证了文章结论的稳健性。本文认为加强西部大开发政策支持的重点在于减少企业税负,优化财政支持方式,以企业生产率提升为契机带动西部地区经济发展。
关键词:西部大开发 财税政策 全要素生产率 双重差分法
How Do Fiscal and Tax Policies Affect Frims’ Productivity
Under Western Development Strategy
Yongbao Ji Huihang Wu Xiao Liu Jianming Dou
Abstract: Many literature have made an objective appraisal of the implementation effect of the western development policy, but few have studied and explained the fiscal and taxation policy effects that the western development policy has on the productivity of enterprises and the micro mechanism of how the fiscal and taxation policies affect the enterprises to achieve the effect. Based on the perspective of the TFP of enterprises, this paper summarizes the mechanism of the TFP influencing the policies of the western development on the basis of the fiscal subsidy effect and the tax preference effect. On this basis, I propose and explain the mystery of the TFP go-ahead in western enterprises at the western development policy boundary. This paper, using 1998-2007 industrial enterprises data, with boundary matching difference in difference method, from the perspective of fiscal and tax policy acting on enterprises, found that the Western Development Strategy significantly enhances enterprises’ TFP in western region, the western city (county) enterprises’ TFP increase 7% (12.2%) averagely. The result of mechanism identification test shows that the fiscal subsidy policy has the effect of "subsidy curse". The direct financial subsidy can not increase the TFP of enterprises, but the tax reduction policy has a significant effect on the TFP promotion. Heterogeneity test results show that the policy of western development has attracted more private and foreign enterprises, making the profitability of state-owned enterprises lower. Finally, the robustness of the conclusion of the article is further verified through various methods. This paper argues that the emphasis of strengthening the western development policy support is to reduce the corporate tax burden, optimize the financial support mode, and promote the economic development in the western region with the improvement of enterprise productivity.
Keywords: Western Development Strategy Fiscal and Tax Policy Total Factor Productivity Difference in Difference
JEL Classification: R11 E61
煤炭消费系统中影响因素的变动对煤炭消费水平的影响
——基于SD的仿真研究
王晨 黄和 王新华
摘 要:煤炭资源是我国重要的基础能源,可靠的供给和有效的利用是国民经济与社会发展的重要保证,但煤炭资源的开发和利用在促进经济与社会发展的同时,也对生态和环境造成了严重的破坏。寻找减少煤炭资源消费的路径,提高煤炭资源利用效率一直是相关行业和学者关注的问题。而欲实现这一目标,就需要深入分析影响煤炭消费的因素及影响程度。因此,本文利用2005-2015年我国煤炭资源消费的相关数据,在分析了煤炭各消费路径及影响因素的基础上,构建了SD分析模型,并进行了仿真分析。研究结果发现:经济发展、油气价格、基建规模正向影响煤炭资源消费量,电力结构、燃煤效率、产品结构、企业规模、用煤方式、煤炭价格、建材结构、城市化水平负向影响煤炭资源消费量,并且各因素对煤炭消费量的影响程度也不同,这一研究结果为各煤炭消费路径制定相应节能减排措施及发展方向提供了定量分析依据。
关键词:系统动力学;煤炭消费;系统仿真
Study on the Factors of Coal Consumption Based on SD Model
Chen Wang He Huang Xinhua Wang
Abstract:Economic development and urbanization process has increased the demand for coal consumption, and the non-renewable nature of coal resources and environmental pollution problems become increasingly serious. Therefore, reducing coal consumption has become the primary problem of coordinated development of economy environment. Based on China's coal resources consumption system as the research object, and analyzing the consumption path and its influencing factors of coal, the article constructs the coal resource consumption system SD model by using the method of system dynamics. And the simulation shows that the variation degree of total coal consumption from 2005 to 2015 when the influencing factors are changed by 1%. The research indicates that the economic development, oil and gas prices and the scale of infrastructure construction positively influence the consumption of coal resources. On the contrary, power structure, coal efficiency, product structure, enterprise scale, coal usage, coal prices, building structure and urbanization level negatively effect the coal resource consumption. In addition, the impact of various factors on coal consumption is also different. And the results of this study provide a scientific and rational basis for the formulation of economic development policies.
Keywords: System Dynamics; Coal Consumption; System Simulation
JEL Classification: E27 Q43
绿色全要素视角下中国工业与服务业的效率比较
宋雪 匡贤明
摘 要:中国正处在经济转型升级的历史关节点,经济结构由工业经济向服务经济转型的趋势明显,服务业成为拉动经济增长的新引擎。然而,很多学者提出,相比于工业,服务业的效率偏低,将影响中国经济增长。为此,本文对SBM-DEA模型做了改进,将环境因素纳入效率分析框架,对中国2003-2015年30个省级经济体工业与服务业的效率进行测算和比较;在此基础上进一步讨论了处于不同经济发展阶段的各省市其工业与服务业效率变动的特征及趋势。结果显示:考虑环境约束后,服务业的平均效率要高于工业,但各省市、各区域之间工业与服务业的相对效率差异较大;工业与服务业整体运行效率均呈现下降趋势,但工业效率下降的速度更快;处于工业化较高阶段的省份其工业与服务业的效率普遍较高,且服务业效率高于工业的省市要占大多数。因此,考虑到能源和环境约束在新发展阶段将不断增强,中国经济转向大力发展服务业,总体上是有效率的。
关键词:绿色全要素效率SBM-DEA模型 工业 服务业 工业化进程
A Comparative Study on Efficiency of China’s Industry and Services
in Green Total Factor Perspective
Xue Song Xianming Kuang
Abstract: At present, China is at the historical joint point of economic transformation and upgrading, the trend of industrial structure changes from industrial economy to service economy is obvious, and the service industry has become the new engine to stimulate economic growth. However, many scholars have suggested that service sector is inefficient compared with the industrial sector, and it will certainly affect China’s economic growth. The traditional SBM-DEA model is improved in this paper, and environmental factors are included in the efficiency analysis framework. This paper provides a more accurate calculation result of measuring and comparing the efficiency of industry and services of 30 provincial economies in China from year 2003 to 2015.On this foundation, it further discusses characters and changing trends of the efficiency of industry and service industry of provinces in different economic development processes. Through the analysis, this paper draws the following basic conclusions: Considered restraints of resource and environment, the average efficiency of industry is less than that of service sector, but the relative efficiency of industrial and service sector in the cities and provinces is different. During the sample period, the overall efficiency of China’s industrial and service sector continues to deteriorate, but the industrial efficiency is declining far faster than the efficiency of the service sector. In the provinces with higher industrialization, the green total factor efficiency of industry and services are generally higher, and the provinces that the efficiency of service sector is higher than that of industrial sector account for the majority. Therefore, considered restraints of resource and environment in the drive of new development stage continue to increase, the shift to develop services vigorously by China’s economy is generally in line with the principle of efficiency.
Keywords: Green Total Factor Efficiency SBM-DEA Model Industry Services Industrialization Process
JEL Classification: Q51 L80 D24
非专利实施实体的策略性行为研究
洪结银 封曾陟
摘 要:近年来,非专利实施实体的策略性行为对创新和经济效率的影响引发了广泛的关注。本文基于纵向产业链的视角,依据非专利实施实体的专利的创新性质和纵向关联市场的竞争格局,构建了一个三阶段博弈模型,对非专利实施体与下游生产企业之间的博弈进行了理论分析。研究发现, 非专利实施实体的“专利流氓”行为大多出现在产业生命周期的成长阶段,且胜诉率与法定赔偿额度越高以及诉讼费用越低越容易诱发这种行为。在此基础上,本文对欧美地区的非专利实施实体的现状和政府相应的政策应对进行了研究,并分别从政府和企业层面就如何减少专利钓饵策略实施、维护公平交易提出了相应的政策建议。
关键词:纵向产业链 非专利实施实体 钓饵策略 经济效率
Study on Strategic Behaviors of Non-Practicing Entities
Jieyin Hong Zengzhi Feng
Abstract:In recent years, the impact of strategic behaviors about Non-Practicing Entities on innovation and economic efficiency has aroused wide concern. From the perspective of vertical industry chain, this paper constructs a three-stage game model according to the innovative nature of patent and the competitive pattern of vertical related market of Non-Practicing Entities and analyses the game between Non-Practicing Entities and downstream production enterprises. We find that “Patent Troll” behavior of Non-Practicing Entities mostly emerge in the growth stage of industry life cycle and higher the lawsuit winning rate, legal amount of compensation and lower litigation costs can easily trigger the behavior. Based on this, this paper studies the status of Non-Practicing Entities in Europe and America and corresponding government’s policy response to it and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on the ways to reduce patent troll implementing as well as maintaining fair trade from government and enterprise level.
Keywords: Vertical Industry Chain Non-Practicing Entities Patent Troll Strategy Economic Efficiency
JEL Classification: O34 L12 L42
产融结合、企业属性和研发创新
杨竹清
摘要:“由产而融”能否很好地实现“由融促产”,这问题值得深入研究,然而鲜见相关实证文献。故选择2008至2015年我国投资非上市金融企业的上市公司为研究对象,深入分析了企业产融结合对研发创新的影响,且着重考察了企业属性的调节效应。结果发现:第一,企业产融结合可以促进研发投入和发明专利、实用新型、外观设计的创新产出,但企业的国有属性削弱了这种作用。第二,持股金融企业股权对企业研发投入有一定“挤出效应”,但当绝对控股金融企业时,可以强化产融结合对研发创新的积极作用。第三,企业投资持股银行和证券公司对研发创新的促进作用更为明显,产融结合的效应更好。
关键词:产融结合 研发投入 技术创新 企业属性
Enterprise Industry and Financial Integration, Enterprise Attributes and R & D Innovation
Zhuqing Yang
Abstract: It is worthy of further research on whether the enterprise invests in finance can promote the output of the enterprise. However, there are few relevant empirical documents. This paper chooses the non-financial listed companies that invest in non-listed financial enterprises from 2008 to 2015 as the research samples, and analyzes the impact of the combination of industry and financial on the R&D innovation, and focuses on the adjustment effect of the enterprise attributes. The results show that: First, the combination of enterprise finance can promote R&D investment and invention patents, utility models, design innovation output, but the state-owned properties of enterprises weakened this effect. Second, with the holdings of holdings of financial enterprises increased, R&D investment significantly reduced, but when the absolute holding, you can strengthen the combination of production and innovation on the positive role of R&D innovation. Third, the enterprise investment holding banks and securities companies to promote the role of R&D innovation is more obvious, better combination of production and financial effect.
Keywords: Integration of Industry and Finance R&D Investment Technological Innovation Enterprise Attribute
JEL Classification: O32 G38 G32