供需结构错配、市场化进程与供给侧结构性改革
——基于我国省级数据的实证研究
石明明
摘 要:供给侧结构性改革是我国当前经济社会发展中的重点议题,供需结构错配是供给侧结构问题的突出表现。本文剖析了供需结构错配的基本机理,对“摩擦性”和“机制性”错配进行了区分,并基于2013年全国经济普查等省级数据,综合应用多种计量方法及稳健性检验,对供给结构和需求结构各自的特征、供需结构偏离与市场化进程的关系等进行了实证研究。研究显示,市场化进程差异越小,不同省份之间消费结构的相似程度越高;市场化进程差异越大,不同省份之间消费结构的差异也越大;工业同构指数与市场化进程差异不存在显著相关关系。控制其他变量以后,市场化程度差异对供需结构偏离具有显著影响:市场化水平差异越大,工业同构指数对消费同构指数的偏离程度也越大;市场化水平差异越小,工业同构指数对消费同构指数的偏离程度也越小;市场化程度越高的地区,工业同构指数对消费同构指数的偏离也越小。本文的有关研究结论显示,市场化是解决经济体系供需结构错配的重要方式,建议在推进供给侧结构性改革中,坚定不移地坚持市场经济改革方向,通过市场化办法系统性、机制性地矫正供需结构错配和要素配置扭曲。
关键词:供给侧结构性改革 工业结构 消费结构 同构指数
Mismatch of Supply and Demand Structure,Marketization Process and Supply-side Structural Reform
——Evidences from Provence-level Data
Mingming Shi
Abstract:Supply side structural reform is the key issue in China's current economic and social development, and meanwhile the effective supply issue has periodic and institutional reasons. This paper focuses on the issue "can marketization help to alleviate the mismatch of supply and demand structure?", and based on the province-level data and the application of econometric methods and robustness test, studies the respective characteristics of supply and demand supply structure, the relationship between deviation and marketization. The results show that when marketization difference is smaller, the degree of structural similarity between different provinces consumption is larger. Meanwhile when the difference is bigger, the difference of provincial consumption structures is also larger. This attribute doesn’t exist in industrial structure. The difference of marketization degree has a significant influence on the deviation of supply and demand structure. The greater the difference in the marketization degree is, the deviation of supply and demand side is bigger, meanwhile the difference of the market level is smaller, the deviation degree is also smaller. The higher one region‘s degree of marketization is, the deviation is also smaller. All conclusions of the paper support the viewpoint that marketization can help t to alleviate the mismatch of supply and demand structure. We suggest that in promoting the supply side structural reform, the market-oriental reform should be unswervingly adhered, and the mismatch of supply and demand structure and factor distortion should be solved through the market way.
Keyword: Supply-Side Structural Reform Supply Structure Demand Structure Similarity Index
JEL Classification: L11 P23 O17
异质产品技术改进的动态市场竞争效应
——来自中国汽车市场的实证研究
孙江永 王新华 张威威
摘 要:本文从异质产品的微观层面研究了技术改进的市场竞争效应随着竞争产品上市时间的变化趋势和竞争效应的细分市场边界。通过对中国乘用车市场13900个有效样本的经验研究得到结论如下。(1)市场竞争效应促进了产品的技术改进,但是竞争产品差异性越大其市场竞争效应越弱,市场竞争效应随着竞争产品上市后的时间呈现先增强后减弱的趋势。(2)汽车市场竞争效应在竞争车型上市以后2年才充分显现出来,近2年上市、排量在上下20%区间内的车型带来的市场竞争效应最为明显。(3)上述细分市场边界内近2年上市车型数量每增加1%通过竞争效应会促进车型的能源节约技术提升0.028%~0.14%。(4)技术水平越低的产品通过市场竞争效应改进的效果越明显。进一步用索洛余值、考虑到样本差异的实证检验结果支持了上述研究结论的稳健性。
关键词:动态竞争效应 技术改进 市场边界 汽车市场
The Dynamic Market Competition Effect on Product Technology Improvement and Market Boundary:An Empirical Study on Chinese Automobile Market
Jiangyong Sun Xinhua Wang Weiwei Zhang
Abstract: This paper has studied variation trend of the competition effect on technology improvement changing with time of rival products existing in the market and studied subdivided market boundary. The following conclusions are drawn through empirical test on 13900 samples in Chinese automobile market. (1) Competition effect promotes product technology improvement, and the more product differentiation, the less is the competition effect, and the competition effect increases first, and then decrease along the time of rival products existing in the market. (2)Market competition effect has been fully shown up in 2 years after competing products coming into the market, and the most significant competition effect comes from competing automobile models coming into the market in the latest 2 years and in the displacement interval up and down by 20 percent. (3)An increase by 1 percent in the number of automobile models coming into the subdivided market mentioned above in the latest 2 years has promoted improvement of energy saving technology by 0.028 percent to 0.14 percent through competition effect. (4)The lower is the energy efficiency of automobile models, the more apparent improvement of energy saving technology market competition effect will promote. Further empirical tests respectively with Solow residual, with different sample selection shows the robustness of the conclusions mentioned above.
Keywords: Dynamic Competition Effect Technology Improvement Market Boundary Automobile Market
JEL Classification: L11 L15 L62 D22
城市人口规模与二氧化碳排放
——基于中国108个地级市的实证检验
易艳春 马思思 关卫军
摘 要:在快速的城市化过程中不同规模的城市都不同程度地出现温室气体排放增加的问题。在低碳约束下,我国必须寻求可持续的城市化路径,首先应该回答的问题是多大的城市规模是可持续的。本文建立面板门限回归模型,应用我国108个地级及地级以上城市2003—2014年间的面板数据,以人口规模为门限变量进行实证研究,发现反映我国城市规模与碳排放之间关系的非线性回归模型具有2个门限值。门槛回归的结果显示,城市化的进程显著地增加了碳排放。但在不同城市规模下,人口规模对碳排放的影响是不同的。中等城市的人口增加引致的碳排放增量最少。其次是人口少于510万人的大城市。而特大和超大城市的城市化进程带来的碳排放增加是最多的。
关键词:城市化 城市人口规模 碳排放 门限回归
Urban Size and Carbon Emissions
Yanchun Yi Sisi Ma Weijun Guan
Abstract: During the course of rapid urbanization, cities of different sizes have met with the problem of greenhouse gas increase to some degree.Under low cabon constraint, we need to seek continuable urbanization path. Based on the threshold regression model of Hansen and applied the population size as threshold variable, our empirical study with panel data of 108 cities in ten years finds three threshold variables. The result showed that urbanization raised carbon emissions. While population sizes had different effects on carbon emissions. Population increase in Medium-sized cities caused the least carbon emissions, then big cities with population less than 5100000. Megacities cities caused the most carbon emissions.
Keyword: Urbanization City Size Carbon Emissions Threshhold Regression
JEL Classification: Q53 R23
企业的空间异质性、集聚中心依赖性与企业绩效
陆剑宝
摘 要:同一行业的企业在空间上的分布是非均质的。区别于以往对生产率异质性企业的研究,本文以企业的空间异质性作为切入点,研究同一行业的空间分散性企业对集聚中心的依赖性及其绩效与空间集聚企业对集聚中心的依赖性及其绩效的异同。基于中山古镇灯饰产业的大数据研究发现:同一行业的企业在空间上的定位是随机性与依赖性并存的;空间分散性企业对集聚中心的依赖集中在市场关联和知识溢出,对劳动力池依赖不显著;空间集聚企业对集聚中心的依赖性均支持了马歇尔的集聚理论;最后,无论空间分散性企业还是空间集聚企业与集聚中心保持紧密关系都能显著提升其企业绩效。在我国众多的制造业集聚中形成数个具有世界知名度的集聚中心,无论对国内同业还是对行业产品出口竞争力的提升都大有裨益。
关键词:空间异质性企业 集聚中心依赖 企业绩效
The Spatial Heterogeneous Firms、Dependency of Core-agglomeration And Firm Performance
Jianbao Lu
Abstract: The firms in the same industry are heterogeneously distributed in space. Distinguished from the former researches on the firms of heterogeneous productivity, this paper is using the spatial heterogeneity of the firms as entry point, to study the dependency of core-agglomeration and performance of the spatial dispersive firm, and those of the spatial agglomerative firm. The study finds that: (1)the firms in the same industry are located randomly and dependently in space.(2)spatial dispersive firm is more dependent on market and knowledge than labor.(3)spatial agglomerative firm’s dependency of core-agglomeration is supportive to Marshall’s agglomeration theory. (4)to keep close to core-agglomeration will benefit the firm performance no matter spatial dispersive firm or spatial agglomerative firm.
Keywords: Spatial Heterogeneous Firms Dependency of Core-Agglomeration Center Firm Performance
JEL Classification: F23 L72
企业社会责任与关系利益
-----以消费者信任为中介的研究视角
娄桂莲 董淑兰
摘 要:企业社会责任理论、利益相关者理论和关系营销理论都从不同视角关注了企业社会责任行为对于消费者响应的影响。本文根据真实企业的社会责任报告编制调查问卷,以消费者信任为中介变量,考察了消费者企业社会责任感知对于企业与消费者之间关系质量提升与关系结果改善方面的影响。结果证实:消费者企业社会责任感知有助于企业与消费者之间建立起强劲的信任关系,而这一关系的建立能够提升消费者对于公司产品的购买意向、消费者满意、口碑和对公司负面消息的宽容。本文的研究提升了CSR通过影响消费者信任,进而影响公司绩效的理解。
关键词: 消费者企业社会责任感知 消费者信任 关系利益
Corporate Social Responsibility and the Benefit of Relationship
------The Mediating Role of Trust
Guilian Lou Shulan Dong
Abstract: Corporate social responsibility theory, stakeholder theory and relationship marketing theory are all concerned about the impact of corporate social responsibility on consumer response. This paper investigates the effects of consumer perceptions of corporate social responsibility on improvement of relationship quality and relationship outcome between enterprise and consumers, using the questionnaire compiled according to real business social responsibility report, with consumer trust as intermediary variable. Results show that consumer perceptions of corporate social responsibility help to establish a strong trust relationship between enterprises and consumers, and this relationship enhances the consumers’ purchase intention for product, customer satisfaction, word of mouth, and resilience from company's negative news. The research of this paper has promoted the understanding of the influence of CSR on corporate performance through consumer trust.
Keyword: Consumers’ Perception of Corporate Social Responsibility Consumer Trust The Benefit of Relationship
JEL Classification: M14 M20
人力资本对山东省产业结构服务化的影响
——Baumol“非均衡经济增长模型”的拓展分析
牛凤巧 杜曙光
摘 要:人力资本积累是经济得以持续增长的决定性因素,是区域产业发展的真正源泉。因此,本文在综述前人对人力资本和产业结构服务化研究的基础上,首先,将人力资本这一要素纳入Baumol的“非均衡经济增长模型”中,从理论模型层面分析人力资本对山东省产业结构服务化的影响。其次,选取山东省2001-2015年的数据为样本空间,采用经验数据验证并利用计量经济分析方法定量测度山东省人力资本对产业结构服务化的影响。结果表明:人力资本对制造业与服务业的相对劳动生产率和服务业与制造业的就业比重均有正向作用,且存在长期均衡关系,短期内也可调整到均衡状态。
关键词:人力资本 产业结构服务化 Baumol模型
An Empirical Analysis of The Impacts of Human Capital of Industrial Structure Servicing in Shandong Province
Fengqiao Niu Shuguang Du
Abstract: The study found that human capital accumulation is the decisive factors in the sustained growth of economy and the true source of the industrial development. Therefore, this article on the basis of reviewing previous research on human capital and industrial structure servicing, first, the elements of human capital should be brought into the Baumol’s “Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth”, through the theoretical model to analyze the influence of human capital of Shandong province industrial structure servicing. Second, we select the data of Shandong province in 2001-2015 to measure the impacts of human capital of industrial servicing in Shandong province by empirical data validation and econometric analysis method. Results show that the human capital to the relative productivity of manufacturing industry and service industry, and service industry and manufacturing employment proportion, have a positive effect. And there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, in the short term can also be adjusted to equilibrium. Finally puts forward countermeasures and suggestions about the improvement of human capital level and industrial structure servicing in Shandong province.
Keywords: Human Capital Industrial Structure Servicing Baumol’s Model
JEL Classification:C52 E24 J24
替代弹性特征分析:异质性、资本技能互补假说和索罗猜想
油永华
摘 要:选择2014年制造企业的上市公司1335家为样本,从其财务报告中获得指标数据,以超对数成本函数作为分析对象,估计资本、非技能劳动和技能劳动三者间的偏替代弹性(AES)和影子替代弹性(SES),并分析各类替代弹性的异质性特征、检验资本技能互补假说和索罗猜想。得出结论:制造类各行业三要素之间互相表现为互补性,替代弹性存在一定程度异质性;相对于非技能劳动而言,资本技能表现为绝对互补性;行业划分越明细,替代弹性越小。
关键词:替代弹性 资本技能互补假说 索罗猜想
Characteristic Analysis about Elasticity of Substitution: Heterogeneity, the Capital Skills Complement Hypothesis and Solow Conjecture
Yonghua You
Abstract: Taking 2014 manufacturing listed companies as samples, obtains data from its financial report, with super logistic cost function as analysis object, estimates elasticity of substitution of the capital no-skills labor and skills labor, and estimates the results as the analysis object, explore the elasticity of substitution of heterogeneity, and verify the capital skills complement hypothesis, and Solow conjecture. Conclusion: the three components of manufacturing are complementarity.Alternative elasticity is heterogeneity. Capital and skills are absolutely complementary to non-skilled Labour.The more the industry divides the less elastic.
Key words: Elasticity of Substitution The Capital Skills Complement Hypothesis Solow Conjecture
JEL Classification: C38 E22