资本账户开放、产业结构升级与跨越“中等收入陷阱”
傅缨捷 丁一兵
摘 要:本文从资本账户开放促进产业结构升级的角度论证了对中等收入国家而言,审慎有效的推进资本账户开放的必要性。通过将资本账户开放的经济效应分解为“阈值效应”和“组成效应”,利用跨国跨行业数据发现,不同类型的国际资本流入对产业结构优化的作用存在差异:经济平稳运行时期,外商直接投资流入能够有效的推动产业结构的升级,国际证券投资流入也对产业结构优化存在正向作用,然而这种积极作用的发挥存在较长的时滞效应。国际债务的流入则无法有效的促进产业结构的优化进而促进实际经济增长。因此,从推动产业结构升级以助于跨越“中等收入陷阱”的角度看,资本账户的开放应遵循一定的顺序并以满足一定的基本条件为前提。
关键词:资本账户开放 产业结构优化中等收入陷阱
Capital Account Liberalization, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Stepping over the Middle-Income Trap
Yingjie Fu Yibing Ding
Abstract:Based on the objective of promoting industrial structural upgrading effectively, this paper proves the necessity of capital account liberalization in middle-income countries. We divide effects of capital account liberalization on industrial structural upgrading into “threshold effect” and “composition effect”. By using cross country and cross industry data, we find that different kinds of international capital flow may have different influences on industrial structural upgrading. During the non-crisis period, both FDI inflow and international portfolio investment can have significant impacts on industrial structural upgrading. However, the positive effects of international portfolio investment may take longer than FDI. And the international debt inflow can not lead to growth by upgrading industrial structure. Thus, in order to upgrade industrial structure and to step over the “Middle-Income Trap”, the liberalization of capital account should follow a certain order and meet some basic conditions as premises.
Keywords: Capital Account Liberalization Industrial Structure Upgrading Middle-Income Trap
JEL Classification: C23 E52 L16
即时通信的多归属行为与企业市场势力
——兼评奇虎诉腾讯案中市场支配地位的认定
刘丰波 黎雨霞
摘 要:即时通信是典型的网络产品,未互联时容易形成“赢家通吃”的市场结构。本文构建一个用户体验竞争模型,分析在单边市场下用户多归属行为对即时通信企业市场势力的影响,研究发现在单边市场下如果用户能够选择多归属,企业的独特外部资源和用户转化能力将是影响企业用户规模的主要因素,转移成本的作用将降低,用户选择灵活性增强,有效削弱了主导企业排除市场竞争的能力。因此在即时通信企业反垄断分析中认定企业市场支配地位时,要基于行业特征采取谨慎的态度,避免执法过度给企业和市场竞争造成的负面影响。本文研究实际上为奇虎诉腾讯垄断案的终审意见提供了一个经济学逻辑。
关键词:即时通信 用户多归属 市场势力 用户体验
Multihoming and Market Power of Instant Messaging
——With comments on Qihoo v. Tencent
Fengbo Liu Yuxia Li
Abstract:Instant messaging is a typical network products, it is easy to form a winner-take-all market structure when the network is incompatible. The paper construct a user experince comptition model based on freeconomics to analyze the impact of multihoming on market power of instant messaging service providers. The results show that in the case of single-side market, if users have choice to multihoming, the firms’ unique external resources and convert ability will mainly effect their user size, and the impact of switching cost will been weaken significantly, so that users have a more flexible choice, and the dominant firms’ power to lessen comptition. Therefore, it is very important to cansider the industry characteristics and should be more careful in anlysising the market dominant of instant messaging firms to avoid causing damages to firms due to too strict law enforcement. The conclusion actually provides a more plausible economic logic to understand China Supreme Court’s final decision on the Qihoo v. Tencent antimonopoly case.
Keywords:Instant Messaging Multihoming Market Power User Experience
JEL Classification: K21 L41 L86
谁影响了产业结构变迁的经济增长效应:政府抑或市场?
纪玉俊 李振洋
摘 要:生产要素在不同部门间的配置推动着产业结构的变迁,进而影响着经济增长。本文以新古典经济增长模型为基本框架,将产业结构以及政府和市场对产业结构变迁的影响纳入到该框架中,对政府和市场作用下产业结构变迁的经济增长效应进行了数理分析。在此基础上,本文基于1985-2013我国各地区面板数据,以门槛回归模型对上述作用机理进行了实证分析。研究表明,当市场对生产要素的配置作用得到较好发挥,而政府对生产要素的配置进行适度影响时,产业结构变迁能够较好的与经济发展进程相适应,从而促进经济增长;相反,产业结构变迁会与经济增长不相适应,并进而对其形成一定程度的阻碍。
关键词:产业结构变迁 政府 市场
Who Affects the Effect of Economic Growth of Industrial Structure Evolution:
the Government or the Market?
Yujun Ji Zhenyang Li
Abstract:The allocation of production factors in different departments promotes the industrial structure evolution, and further affects the economic growth. Based on the framework of model of neoclassical economic growth, this paper adds the industrial structure and the influence of the government and the market to the industrial structure evolution into this framework. Furtherly, this paper makes a mathematical analysis for the effect of economic growth of industrial structure evolution under the action of the government and market. On the basis of the mathematical analysis, based on the regional panel data in China, this paper also makes a empirical analysis to the above mechanism by using the threshold regression model. The results show that when market can play a decisive role on the allocation of production factors and the government has an moderate effect on the allocation of production factors, the industrial structure evolution can match the process of economic growth better, which will further promotes economic growth. On the contrary, the industrial structure evolution can’t match the economic growth better, and then it will form a certain degree of obstacle to the economic growth.
Keywords:Industrial Structure Evolution Government Market
JEL Classification: E13 L16 O12
东道国腐败与中国对外直接投资区位选择
—基于企业投资动机的视角
陈向 周浩
摘 要:基于企业投资动机的视角,利用商务部公布的2005-2012年期间中国对外直接投资企业名录的数据,本文运用负二项回归模型,从微观层面实证考察了东道国腐败对中国OFDI选址的影响。研究结果显示,总体上东道国的腐败水平对中国的OFDI具有显著的吸引力,中国OFDI更多地流向腐败程度较高的国家。进一步的研究表明,东道国腐败水平对中国OFDI选址的影响存在显著的投资动机差异:东道国腐败水平虽然对中国的资源寻求型OFDI和市场寻求型OFDI产生正向吸引力;但成为技术寻求型OFDI迁入的阻力。同时,东道国腐败水平对资源寻求型OFDI选址的影响力在三者之中最大。另外,相关的稳健性检验也同样支持上述结论。
关键词:腐败 对外直接投资 投资动机
Corruption and Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investments
——From the perspective of investment motivation
Xiang Chen Hao Zhou
Abstract:Using micro-level Chinese outward foreign direct investments data from 2005 to 2012, the paper surveys the impact of host country’s corruption on the location choice of Chinese outward foreign direction investment. The negative binomial estimation results show that the corruption in the host country has significant positive effects on Chinese outward foreign direct investments. Moreover, the impacts of corruption on Chinese outward foreign direction investment are different among OFDIs with different investment motivations. In general, resource seeking foreign direct investment and market seeking foreign direct investment favor location with higher corruption while technology seeking foreign direct investment is just the opposite.
Keywords: Corruption Chinese Outward FDI Investment Motivation
JEL Classification: F21 R11
气候预测对农业决策的经济价值:文献综述与研究进展
周志霞
摘 要:气候变异及变化由于受生产决策中信息局限的驱动、以及基于不确定性对风险规避型决策者施加的额外负担,导致了农户损失并使部分农户陷入贫困陷阱,而季节性气候预测作为农业的适应性选择,有助于降低气候的不确定性、增加农户的防范、并带来长期更好的经济与环境效益。本研究梳理了气候预测对农业决策价值研究的相关文献,认为气候预测对农业决策具有积极而适度的经济价值:农业管理人员采用气候预测及信息以改善农业决策管理、农户对气候预测的适应性管理响应以把握预期有利条件、以及气候风险的有效管理激励农户从持续贫穷转向资产积累与生产力和盈利能力的提高。然而,气候预测应用于农业管理仍存在若干障碍,研究提出了解决气候预测对农业决策价值不确定性问题的改进建议:社会科学方法与生物经济建模方法的全面结合、耕作制度与地点范围的适当扩展、及先进预测技术与管理响应方案的科学纳入。
关键词:气候不确定性 适应选性择 农业决策 经济价值
The Economic Value of Climate Predictions on Agricultural Decision:
Literature Review and Research Progress
Zhixia Zhou
Abstract:Due to the drive of information limitation in production decisions, as well as the extra burden imposed on risk-averse decision-makers based upon uncertainty, climate variability and change have caused farmers’ losses and made some farmers fall into poverty trap, whereas seasonal climate prediction as the adaptive options in agriculture, helps to reduce climate uncertainty, increase farmers’ prevention, and bring long-term better economic and environmental benefits. This thesis reviewed the relevant literatures on climate prediction and agricultural value, concluded that climate predication had a positive and appropriate economic value to agricultural decision-making: agricultural managers adopted climate forecasts and information to improve agricultural climatic risk management, farmers’ adaptive management response to climate predictions helped to grasp the expected favorable conditions, the effective management and incentive of climate risks helped farmers turn from persistent poverty to assets accumulation and improvement of productivity and profitability. However, there still existed a number of obstacles for seasonal forecast to be used in agricultural management, the thesis thus proposed improving recommendations on resolving the uncertainty of climate predictions on agricultural value: the comprehensive integration of social science methods and bio-economic modeling methods, the adequate extension of cropping system and location range, and the scientific inclusion of advanced prediction technique and management responding programs.
Keywords: Climate Uncertainty Adaptive Option Agricultural Decision Economic Value
JEL Classification: D81 Q15 Q54
供给侧改革背景下软预算约束、国有股最优比例与产能过剩分析
陈俊龙 齐平 曹凤怡 李良哲
摘 要:去产能是供给侧改革的重中之重,需要将国有企业混合所有制改革与政企关系改革相结合。构建由国有企业构成的双寡头垄断竞争模型,剖析产能过剩的形成机制,并探索国有股最优比例及最优软预算约束水平。研究发现:国有股最优比例是一个动态变量,受多种因素的影响;产能过剩的形成机制复杂,与国有股比例、软预算约束水平存在密切关系,但不必然是正相关关系;在一定情况下,存在最优的软预算约束水平。对此,需要坚持市场的决定性地位,加快推进去产能改革;稳步推进国有企业混合所有制改革;进一步转变政府职能,理顺政企关系。
关键词:软预算约束 国有股最优比例 产能过剩
Soft Budget Constraints,the Optimal Proportion of State-owned Shares and the Excess Capacity under the Supply-side Reforms
Junlong Chen Ping Qi Fengyi Cao Liangzhe Li
Abstract:De-capacity is the most important part of the supply-side reforms,which needs to unite the mixed ownership reform of the state-owned enterprises and the government-enterprise relationship reform. This paper constructs the double oligarchies competition model which is composed of the state-owned enterprises,analyses the formation mechanism of the excess capacity problem then studies the optimal proportion of state-owned shares and the optimal level of soft budget constraint. The conclusions are that the optimal proportion of state-owned shares is a dynamic variable and is influenced by many factors;the formation mechanism of the excess capacity problem is complex,it is closely connected with the proportion of state-owned shares and the level of soft budget constraints.We should accelerate the de-capacity reform,adhere to put the market into a decisive position and push forward the mixed ownership reform of the state-owned enterprises, and transform government function and rationalize the government-enterprise relationship.
Keywords:Soft Budget Constraints the Optimal Proportion of State-owned Shares the Excess Capacity
JEL Classification:L2 M1
中国企业跨国并购对股东财富的影响研究
——基于电子及通讯产品制造业的实证分析
刘开军 刘会芳
摘 要:近年来,我国电子及通讯产品制造业在国民经济中的地位进一步提升,其跨国并购活动能否为股东创造价值?其价值创造活动又会受到哪些因素的影响?针对以上问题的探讨,具有非常重要的现实意义。本文以中国大陆A股上市的电子及通讯产品制造企业在2008 ~ 2014年间发起的跨国并购事件为样本,通过事件研究发现:这类企业的跨国并购总体上获得了显著为负的异常收益,在整个事件窗口期的累计异常收益率为-4.29%.通过进一步的截面回归证实:并购方企业的管理层能力、企业规模、企业的资产结构及以往的跨国并购经验对并购公告产生的消极反应具有一定的调节作用。
关键词:跨国并购 事件研究 并购绩效
The effect of cross-border merger and acquisition on shareholder wealth
——Evidence from electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry
Kaijun Liu Huifang Liu
Abstract: In recent years, the position of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry in the national economy is improving. Can the cross-border merger and acquisitions create wealth for shareholders? What are the factors that may affect the value creation activities? In-depth studies aiming at these questions have very important practical significance. Our paper provides a thorough analysis of cross-border M&As of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry listed on Chinese A-share market. We find that on average, these cross-border M&As produced negative cumulative average abnormal return (-4.29%) as measured in the event period of 21 days. Regression analysis is used to identify factors that influence the direction and magnitude of the change in the stock market’s reaction to the cross-border M&As. We find that acquirers with stronger enterprise management ability or larger firm size or lower debt–equity ratio experience a less negative market reaction.
Keywords:Cross-border M&A Event Study M&A Performance
JEL Classification: F23 L25