Capital Account Liberalization, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Stepping over the Middle-Income Trap
Yingjie Fu Yibing Ding
Abstract:Based on the objective of promoting industrial structural upgrading effectively, this paper proves the necessity of capital account liberalization in middle-income countries. We divide effects of capital account liberalization on industrial structural upgrading into “threshold effect” and “composition effect”. By using cross country and cross industry data, we find that different kinds of international capital flow may have different influences on industrial structural upgrading. During the non-crisis period, both FDI inflow and international portfolio investment can have significant impacts on industrial structural upgrading. However, the positive effects of international portfolio investment may take longer than FDI. And the international debt inflow can not lead to growth by upgrading industrial structure. Thus, in order to upgrade industrial structure and to step over the “Middle-Income Trap”, the liberalization of capital account should follow a certain order and meet some basic conditions as premises.
Keywords: Capital Account Liberalization Industrial Structure Upgrading Middle-Income Trap
JEL Classification: C23 E52 L16
关键词：即时通信 用户多归属 市场势力 用户体验
Multihoming and Market Power of Instant Messaging
——With comments on Qihoo v. Tencent
Fengbo Liu Yuxia Li
Abstract：Instant messaging is a typical network products, it is easy to form a winner-take-all market structure when the network is incompatible. The paper construct a user experince comptition model based on freeconomics to analyze the impact of multihoming on market power of instant messaging service providers. The results show that in the case of single-side market, if users have choice to multihoming, the firms’ unique external resources and convert ability will mainly effect their user size, and the impact of switching cost will been weaken significantly, so that users have a more flexible choice, and the dominant firms’ power to lessen comptition. Therefore, it is very important to cansider the industry characteristics and should be more careful in anlysising the market dominant of instant messaging firms to avoid causing damages to firms due to too strict law enforcement. The conclusion actually provides a more plausible economic logic to understand China Supreme Court’s final decision on the Qihoo v. Tencent antimonopoly case.
Keywords:Instant Messaging Multihoming Market Power User Experience
JEL Classification: K21 L41 L86
关键词：产业结构变迁 政府 市场
Who Affects the Effect of Economic Growth of Industrial Structure Evolution:
the Government or the Market?
Yujun Ji Zhenyang Li
Abstract:The allocation of production factors in different departments promotes the industrial structure evolution, and further affects the economic growth. Based on the framework of model of neoclassical economic growth, this paper adds the industrial structure and the influence of the government and the market to the industrial structure evolution into this framework. Furtherly, this paper makes a mathematical analysis for the effect of economic growth of industrial structure evolution under the action of the government and market. On the basis of the mathematical analysis, based on the regional panel data in China, this paper also makes a empirical analysis to the above mechanism by using the threshold regression model. The results show that when market can play a decisive role on the allocation of production factors and the government has an moderate effect on the allocation of production factors, the industrial structure evolution can match the process of economic growth better, which will further promotes economic growth. On the contrary, the industrial structure evolution can’t match the economic growth better, and then it will form a certain degree of obstacle to the economic growth.
Keywords:Industrial Structure Evolution Government Market
JEL Classification: E13 L16 O12
关键词：腐败 对外直接投资 投资动机
Corruption and Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investments
——From the perspective of investment motivation
Xiang Chen Hao Zhou
Abstract:Using micro-level Chinese outward foreign direct investments data from 2005 to 2012, the paper surveys the impact of host country’s corruption on the location choice of Chinese outward foreign direction investment. The negative binomial estimation results show that the corruption in the host country has significant positive effects on Chinese outward foreign direct investments. Moreover, the impacts of corruption on Chinese outward foreign direction investment are different among OFDIs with different investment motivations. In general, resource seeking foreign direct investment and market seeking foreign direct investment favor location with higher corruption while technology seeking foreign direct investment is just the opposite.
Keywords: Corruption Chinese Outward FDI Investment Motivation
JEL Classification: F21 R11
关键词：气候不确定性 适应选性择 农业决策 经济价值
The Economic Value of Climate Predictions on Agricultural Decision:
Literature Review and Research Progress
Abstract:Due to the drive of information limitation in production decisions, as well as the extra burden imposed on risk-averse decision-makers based upon uncertainty, climate variability and change have caused farmers’ losses and made some farmers fall into poverty trap, whereas seasonal climate prediction as the adaptive options in agriculture, helps to reduce climate uncertainty, increase farmers’ prevention, and bring long-term better economic and environmental benefits. This thesis reviewed the relevant literatures on climate prediction and agricultural value, concluded that climate predication had a positive and appropriate economic value to agricultural decision-making: agricultural managers adopted climate forecasts and information to improve agricultural climatic risk management, farmers’ adaptive management response to climate predictions helped to grasp the expected favorable conditions, the effective management and incentive of climate risks helped farmers turn from persistent poverty to assets accumulation and improvement of productivity and profitability. However, there still existed a number of obstacles for seasonal forecast to be used in agricultural management, the thesis thus proposed improving recommendations on resolving the uncertainty of climate predictions on agricultural value: the comprehensive integration of social science methods and bio-economic modeling methods, the adequate extension of cropping system and location range, and the scientific inclusion of advanced prediction technique and management responding programs.
Keywords: Climate Uncertainty Adaptive Option Agricultural Decision Economic Value
JEL Classification: D81 Q15 Q54
陈俊龙 齐平 曹凤怡 李良哲
关键词：软预算约束 国有股最优比例 产能过剩
Soft Budget Constraints，the Optimal Proportion of State-owned Shares and the Excess Capacity under the Supply-side Reforms
Junlong Chen Ping Qi Fengyi Cao Liangzhe Li
Abstract：De-capacity is the most important part of the supply-side reforms，which needs to unite the mixed ownership reform of the state-owned enterprises and the government-enterprise relationship reform. This paper constructs the double oligarchies competition model which is composed of the state-owned enterprises，analyses the formation mechanism of the excess capacity problem then studies the optimal proportion of state-owned shares and the optimal level of soft budget constraint. The conclusions are that the optimal proportion of state-owned shares is a dynamic variable and is influenced by many factors；the formation mechanism of the excess capacity problem is complex，it is closely connected with the proportion of state-owned shares and the level of soft budget constraints.We should accelerate the de-capacity reform，adhere to put the market into a decisive position and push forward the mixed ownership reform of the state-owned enterprises, and transform government function and rationalize the government-enterprise relationship.
Keywords：Soft Budget Constraints the Optimal Proportion of State-owned Shares the Excess Capacity
JEL Classification：L2 M1
摘 要：近年来，我国电子及通讯产品制造业在国民经济中的地位进一步提升，其跨国并购活动能否为股东创造价值？其价值创造活动又会受到哪些因素的影响？针对以上问题的探讨，具有非常重要的现实意义。本文以中国大陆A股上市的电子及通讯产品制造企业在2008 ~ 2014年间发起的跨国并购事件为样本，通过事件研究发现：这类企业的跨国并购总体上获得了显著为负的异常收益，在整个事件窗口期的累计异常收益率为-4.29%．通过进一步的截面回归证实：并购方企业的管理层能力、企业规模、企业的资产结构及以往的跨国并购经验对并购公告产生的消极反应具有一定的调节作用。
关键词：跨国并购 事件研究 并购绩效
The effect of cross-border merger and acquisition on shareholder wealth
——Evidence from electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry
Kaijun Liu Huifang Liu
Abstract: In recent years, the position of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry in the national economy is improving. Can the cross-border merger and acquisitions create wealth for shareholders? What are the factors that may affect the value creation activities? In-depth studies aiming at these questions have very important practical significance. Our paper provides a thorough analysis of cross-border M&As of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry listed on Chinese A-share market. We find that on average, these cross-border M&As produced negative cumulative average abnormal return (-4.29%) as measured in the event period of 21 days. Regression analysis is used to identify factors that influence the direction and magnitude of the change in the stock market’s reaction to the cross-border M&As. We find that acquirers with stronger enterprise management ability or larger firm size or lower debt–equity ratio experience a less negative market reaction.
Keywords:Cross-border M&A Event Study M&A Performance
JEL Classification: F23 L25