中国电信业市场势力与福利损失估算:基于NEIO方法的研究
杨先明 明秀南 王胜华
摘 要:在反垄断审查中一个重要的问题是,某一特定行业是否存在市场势力及其造成的社会福利损失有多大。本文基于NEIO方法采用2002—2011年间电信业省际面板数据,实证估算了电信业的市场竞争结构、市场势力及其对社会福利损失的大小。研究结果发现,中国电信业具有较高的市场势力,并验证了电信业高度合谋的市场结构;通过改进了的哈伯格福利损失三角模型,估算了2002-2011年间电信业因市场势力导致的社会福利损失高达4709.82亿元,约占行业总收入的6.81%。这表明进一步对垄断行业促进竞争的改革,将有利于增进社会福利。
关键词:新实证产业组织(NEIO) 市场势力 福利损失 电信业
Estimation Market Power and Welfare Loss of Chinese Telecommunication: An Application of NEIO Method
Xianming Yang Xiunan Ming Shenghua Wang
Abstract: Measurement of the market power as well as the effective estimate of the welfare loss is crucial and fundamental issue in the antitrust review.Using the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2011, we estimate the telecommunications conduct parameter, market power and welfare loss. This paper finds that Chinese telecommunications possesses high market power and collusion. The net loss of welfare as a result of market power among the telecommunications can be high up to 470.982 billion RMB,accounts for about 6.81% of total industry revenue.
Keywords: New Empirical Industrial Organization(NEIO) Market Power Welfare loss Telecommunications
JEL Classification:L96 L41 C33
三元冲突、规制权衡与电力体制改革
石明明
摘 要:电力改革是一项复杂的系统工程。基于可靠性、经济性与公平性的三元冲突分析框架,本文认为不同国家的改革模式是各国在改革资源与能力的约束下,对三类改革目标综合权衡后合理的均衡的制度选择。基于规制权衡的视角,电力改革的标准模式可以分为可靠导向、经济导向和公平导向三类,在不同导向下平衡各类改革条件可形成法国EDF模式、欧盟TSO模式、美国TO/ISO模式等多元发展模式。我国电力体制设计必须优先保障电力系统拥有强大的公共服务能力,推动电网作为接入平台的产业角色转换、商业模式创新和基础能力建设。基于三元冲突和规制权衡框架,我国电力体制改革必须明确可靠性导向,推进电源侧、需求侧的多元化和电网的平台创新,科学审慎地设计双边交易模式及配套机制,推进售电领域有序竞争与服务创新,实现电力市场体系安全稳定和包容性发展。
关键词:电力体制 三元冲突 规制权衡 改革模式
Trilemma, Regulatory Trade-off and Electricity System Reform
Mingming Shi
Abstract: Electricity reform is a complex systematic engineering. Based on the framework of trilemma among reliability, economy and fairness, this paper suggests that most of the reform modes in different countries are the reasonable and equilibrium choices which considered the trade-off of three kinds of reform objectives under their constraints of reform resource and capacity. Based on the perspective of regulatory Trade-off, standard mode of electric power reform can be summarized into reliability-oriented, economy- oriented and fairness-oriented. Various kinds of reform can be formed under the different orientations and conditions such as EDF mode in France, TSO mode in EU, TO/ISO model in US. Standing at a new historical starting point, the design of electric power system in our country must give priority to enhance the power system has a strong capability of providing basic services, promote the network as a access platform to realize the industry role transformation, business model innovation and capacity building. Based on the framework, the electricity system reform of our country must be clear about its reliability orientation, promote diversity of power supply and demand side and the and grid platform innovation, scientific and prudent design the bilateral transaction mode and supporting mechanism, promote orderly competition and service innovation in electricity retailing, and realize the inclusive development of power market system.
Keywords: Electricity Ssystem Trilemma Regulatory Tradeoff Reform Mode
JEL Classification: L51 L94 P35
网络产业接入定价研究前沿探讨
房林 邹卫星 张奇科
摘 要:接入定价理论是网络产业由垄断向竞争的演变过程中发展起来的。其中,单向接入定价是对产业放松规制,开放竞争领域的重要研究议题;随着网络产业互联互通进程的深化,双向接入定价日益得到关注。本文基于四种定价规则的适用条件、优缺点、应用前景以及市场结构对接入定价影响的视角对单向接入定价理论发展进行梳理;基于线性定价、非线性定价的视角分别对对称市场和非对称市场的双向接入定价文献进行归纳。在此基础上分析接入定价理论现有研究的不足,并指出其理论未来的发展空间。
关键词:网络产业 接入定价 市场结构
A Survey of the Access Pricing Research in Network Industries
Lin Fang Weixing Zou Qike Zhang
Abstract: Access pricing theory was put forward and is increasingly developing accompanies with the market structure transforming from monopoly to competition in network industries. Single-way access pricing study has become an important issue, which focuses on the deregulation of the industries; while with the development and prosperity in interconnection of network industries, two-way access pricing attracts more and more emphasis now. From four aspects, such as the application conditions, the advantage and disadvantage, the prospect of application and the influence on access pricing of market structure, this paper sorts out one-way access pricing theory. Furthermore, from the perspective of both linear pricing and nonlinear pricing, we make a review of double-way access pricing theory both in symmetric and in asymmetric market.
Keyword: Network Industry Access Pricing Market Structure
JEL Classification: L11 L51 L60
中国工业行业资本存量测算
钦晓双 孙成浩
摘 要:纵观现有文献,资本存量核算大都是对我国总量层面和省级层面数据的核算,而针对工业行业的核算成果寥寥无几。究其原因,主要是我国数据统计体系与资本存量核算方法PIM法要求的SNA93体系存在较大差异,且工业行业缺乏核算资本存量的数据基础。本文现将资本存量核算问题重新拾起,针对工业行业层面的资本存量进行核算。在对行业和数据口径进行调整的基础上,本文严格遵循PIM法的要求,对新增投资数据和折旧率做了极为细致地处理,最终形成了工业38个行业、时间跨度为1980-2010年共31年可比资本存量数据,以期对以后工业行业的研究提供较好的数据基础。
关键词:资本存量 永续盘存法 工业行业
The Measurement of Capital Stock of China’s Sub-industries
Xiaoshuang Qin Chenghao Sun
Abstracts: Throughout the existing literature, we find that the current capital stock accounts are mostly on the total level and the provincial level data, but few results about sub-industries. The possible reason is that there is a big difference between China's statistics system and the SNA93 system which is the requirement of PIM, and the data of measuring sub-industrial capital stock is seriously lack. In this article, we try to measure the capital stock of 38 sub-industries, in order to provide a better data base for subsequent sub-industrial research. On the basis of adjusting industry classification and statistic scope, we finally obtain comparable capital stock data covering 38 industries between 1980 and 2010. We find that the capital stock experienced a rapid growth after 2000, which once again proved the phenomenon of over-investment in industrial sectors.
Keywords:Capital stock PIM Manufacturing Industries
JEL Classification: L52 O47
创业者的创业方式选择:团队创业与个体创业
吴兴海 张玉利 罗国锋 马俊
摘 要:持有机会的创业者决定创业时,选择以个体方式创业还是以团队方式创业,是其需要做出的一项重要决策。本研究将团队方式创业视为一个可化解创业风险的机制,同时考虑了以团队方式创业时需要创业者采取的机会失窃防范机制,通过构建博弈分析模型,研究发现,创业机会的风险特征影响创业者采用何种方式进行创业。创业机会的风险性越高时,创业者越可能采用团队方式进行创业;创业机会的风险性越低时,创业者越可能采用个体方式进行创业。
关键词:团队创业 个体创业 创业机会
Team Entrepreneurship and Individual Entrepreneurship: the Choice of Entrepreneurship Model
Xinghai Wu Yuli Zhang Guofeng Luo Jun Ma
Abstract: When one entrepreneur decides to start a new venture, he needs to make an important decision on whether to exploit the entrepreneurial opportunity alone or to exploit it by the entrepreneurial team. Based on entrepreneurial team as a risk-solving mechanism perspective, through constructing the model of game theory, this study finds out that the risk characteristic of entrepreneurial opportunity influences which way entrepreneurs will choose to exploit the opportunity. The higher the risk level of entrepreneurial opportunity is, the more likely that the entrepreneur will be to exploit the opportunity through entrepreneurial team; The lower the risk level of entrepreneurial opportunity is, the more likely that the entrepreneur will be to exploit the opportunity alone.
Keywords: Entrepreneurial Opportunity Team Entrepreneurship Individual Entrepreneurship
JEL Classification: M00 M13 C72
污染减排与产业结构调整的双向动态作用机制研究
谢荣辉 原毅军
摘 要:本文选取产业结构调整与污染减排双向互动的视角,利用1992-2010年中国省际面板数据,通过格兰杰因果检验和面板VAR模型的构建,实证分析了产业结构调整对污染减排的促进作用以及污染减排对产业结构调整的倒逼机制。研究结果表明,工业废气减排量与产业结构调整互为格兰杰成因;工业废气减排量与产业结构调整之间具有双向的正向冲击作用,但治污投资额对产业结构调整的影响并不显著。政府应根据产业结构调整与污染减排之间的相互作用关系,不仅通过制定相关的产业结构调整政策以推动污染减排的实现,更应注重污染减排政策的合理制定,充分挖掘减排的产业结构调整倒逼效应,并进一步利用产业结构政策和污染减排政策的叠加效应,加快实现污染减排与结构调整的“双赢”。
关键词:污染减排 产业结构 倒逼机制
Research on The Bilaterally Dynamic Mechanism of Pollution Abatement And Industrial Structure Adjustment
Ronghui Xie Yijun Yuan
Abstract:This paper is developed from a new perspective of the interaction between the adjustment of industrial structure and the pollution abatement. Using the panel data of the provinces of China from 1992-2010, the paper inspects the panel Granger causal relationship of upgrading rate of industrial structure, emission reduction of industrial waste gas and pollution control investment of industrial program. Then by building the panel VAR model, the paper tests the interactive influence between pollution abatement and adjustment of industrial structure. The results indicate that the emission reduction of the industrial waste gas and the upgrading rate of industrial structure adjustment could influence each other positively; One the other hand, pollution control investment of industrial program hardly impacts the industrial structure, however, the structural adjustment has a negative impact on the pollution control investment. Consequently, based on the relationship that has been drawn from this paper, the government should make industrial policies to promote the process of pollution abatement, as well as reasonable pollution abatement policies to force the industrial structure to be adjusted reversely. Finally, we could achieve a win-win development.
Keywords:Pollution Abatement Industrial Structure Reversed Force Mechanism
JEL Classification: C23 L60 Q53
金融发展与居民消费
—来自中国249个城市的最新证据
辛大楞 熊学萍
摘 要:金融发展与消费之间的关系是一个典型的实证问题。本文运用中国249个城市2001-2010年的面板数据,检验了金融发展与消费增长率之间的关系,结果表明:金融发展对居民消费增长率起到了反向影响;而城市化水平则显著促进了居民消费增长率;政府支出对消费增长率则有一定正向影响。在控制其他变量的情况下,本文未发现人均GDP、对外开放度、教育水平及物价对样本期间的消费增长率产生显著影响。以上结果在一定程度上说明,利用金融手段刺激居民消费的政策尚需进一步完善与调整。
关键词:金融发展 居民消费增长率 动态面板分析
Financial Development and Consumption: Recent Evidence from Chinese 249 Cities
Daleng Xin Xueping Xiong
Abstract:It’s a typically empirical problem that the relationship between financial development and consumption. In the paper we analyze the relationship between financial development and the growth rate of consumption, by using the data of Chinese 249 cities from 2001 to 2010. The result shows that: Financial development has a negative effect on the growth rate of consumption. Urbanization significantly enhances this rate. To some extent, government expenditure has a positive effect on the growth rate of consumption. We don’t see the GDP per capita, opening-up the market, education and inflation have some significant effect on the growth rate of consumption. In some sense it’s showed that the financial policy should be further adjusted and perfected to promote the consumption.
Keywords: Financial Development Growth Rate of Consumption Dynamic Panel Data Analysis
JEL Classification: E21 G21 O16
前景理论:发展、体系与应用
郭妍 张立光 蔡地
摘 要:前景理论“将来自心理研究领域的综合洞察力应用在了经济学当中,尤其是在不确定情况下的人为判断和决策方面做出了突出贡献”,近年来越来越多地引起了人们的关注。该理论通过修正最大效用理论发展而来,它改变了现代金融理论的研究范式,圆满地解释了资本市场上发生的“异象”。经过三十多年的发展,其理论的核心概念——“价值函数”和“概率权重函数”不断得到细化和完善,一些学者或是利用展望理论解释传统金融学无法解释的现象,或是以展望理论为基础推导理论模型及进行实证,已经取得了许多优秀成果,未来可望在更多的领域进行运用。
关键词:前景理论 价值函数 概率权重函数 启发式
The Review of Prospect Theory :
Development , System and Application
Yan Guo Liguang Zhang Di Cai
Abstract: Prospect Theory "brings comprehensive insight from psychology research into the field of economics, especially makes outstanding contribution in human judgment and decision-making under uncertain situations ", and receives more and more attentions in recent years. The theory which derives from Maximum Utility Theory, has changed the paradigm of the modern financial theory, and explained satisfactorily the capital market "anomalies". After thirty years of development, the core concept of the theory -- "value function" and "probability weighting function" has been constantly refined and improved, some scholars have used the Prospect Theory to explain the phenomenon which the traditional financial theory can not explain, or have developed theory model or done empirical test based on it .In the future Prospect Theory is expected to be applied in more fields.
Keywords: Prospect Theory Value Function Probability Weighting Function Heuristics
JEL Classification : G11 G21 D01