产业转移：理论学派与研究方法
胡安俊 孙久文 胡浩
摘 要：产业转移是世界各国为了缩小区域差距而普遍采取的措施，其实施效果取决于对产业转移机制的把握。文章首先总结了产业转移的三大理论学派，阐释了影响产业转移的因素。接着归纳了分析产业转移的四种方法，总结了各自的优势与不足。最后，根据我国目前的研究现状与国外研究的经验，指出未来我国产业转移研究的方向。
关键词：产业转移 理论学派 离散选择模型 计数模型
Industrial Migration: Theoretical Schools and Empirical Approaches
Anjun Hu Jiuwen Sun Hao Hu
Abstract: Every country implements the strategy of industrial migration in order to reduce regional disparities, and the effects of industrial migration depend on comprehension of its mechanism. Firstly, we discuss theoretical schools, and list factors of industrial migration. We then conclude four kinds of empirical approaches, and compare the strength and weakness of each approach. Lastly, several trends of the research are proposed according to the research status of China and the experiences from foreign countries.
Keywords: Industrial Migration Theoretical Schools Discrete Choice Model Count Data Model
JEL Classification: R12 R23
进入壁垒与市场绩效关系的实证研究
蒋飞龙 李世英 温 军
摘 要： 基于进入壁垒成因不同,本文将其细分为市场技术壁垒、企业行为壁垒和政府壁垒三类，将中国360个四位数制造业行业按照进入壁垒程度划分为高壁垒行业、中壁垒行业和低壁垒行业三个子样本，利用这些子样本实证研究了影响进入壁垒诸因素与净进入率及市场绩效之间的关系。本文的主要结论和发现是：高壁垒行业集中度与净进入率负相关，中低进入壁垒行业集中度与净进入率显著正相关；三个子样本中平均固定成本和广告密度均与净进入率负相关，表明沉没成本和广告投资会阻碍进入；高壁垒行业和低壁垒行业研发投资对净进入不存在显著影响，中等壁垒行业研发投资会阻碍潜在进入；产能利用水平对净进入的影响在三个样本下均不显著，说明产能过剩更可能是非策略性的；高壁垒行业较高的国企销售比不利于潜在进入，而中（低）壁垒行业国企销售比对进入有着显著（不显著）的正向效应。本文还就如何推动中国经济发展和产业结构调整提出了相应的政策建议。
关键字：进入壁垒 市场绩效 制造业
Empirical Study on the Relationship between Entry Barrier and Market Performance
Feilong Jiang Shiying Li Jun Wen
Abstract：Based on the different causes of barriers to entry, this paper divided it into market technology barriers, firm behavior barriers and government barriers. Through classifying 360 four-digit manufacturing industries of China from the year 2003 to 2009 as three subsamples of the high barriers industries, moderate barriers industries and low barriers industries, we empirically study the relationship between the influencing factors of barriers to entry, net entry rates and market performance. The main findings and conclusions are statemented as follows: industry concentration ratio is negatively correlated with net entry rates in high barriers industries, yet it is significantly positively correlated with net entry rates in moderate and low barriers industries; both average fixed costs and advertising density are negatively correlated with net entry rates in all samples, indicate that suck costs and advertising investment can significantly deter entry; R&D has no significantly influence to net entry barriers both in high and low barriers industries, but in moderate barriers industries it can deter potential entrants significantly; capacity utility level shows indistinctive influence in all samples, implies that excess capacity more likely to be non-strategic policy; high levels of SOEs' sales ratio do harm to potential entries, thus in moderate(low) barriers industries it has significantly(indistinctively) positively effects to entry. Accordingly, this paper gives some advices on how to promote economic development and industrial structure adjustment of China.
Keywords： Entry Barrier Market Performance Manufacturing Industries
JEL Classification：L11 L25 L60
纵向整合策略下研发竞争的研究进展
任曙明 叶梦吕镯
摘 要：关于纵向整合策略下研发竞争的研究，是组织经济学和产业组织理论相互融合的成果。根据分析起点的不同，本文将这个领域的最新发展梳理成以纵向整合策略为起点、以研发竞争策略为起点两条脉络，归纳总结了纵向整合对研发竞争的经济效果、研发竞争下纵向组织安排等热点领域的重要模型及研究成果，对比了现有研究的基本假设、研究方法和结论，提出了进一步的研究方向。
关键词：纵向整合 研发竞争 经济效果
R&D Competition under Vertical Integration Strategy: A Survey
Shuming Ren Meng Ye Zhuo Lv
Abstract:Researches concerning R&D competition under vertical integration strategy should attribute to the combination of organizational economics and industrial organization. Basing a different point of analytical departure，this paper are bifurcated into vertical integration strategy and R&D competition，which summarized a variety of important models and achievements. Besides，basic hypotheses、research methods and conclusions are compared. Finally, a promising research avenue are proposed.
Keywords: Vertical Integration R&D Competition Economic Outcome
JEL Classification：L13 L22 L24 L52
正规金融与非正规金融的共生成长模型及其检验
——基于生态金融视角的研究
彭小静 邓明
摘 要：从金融生态的角度，建立正规金融与非正规金融的Logistic共生成长模型，估算了正规金融与非正规金融的环境容量；然后利用自回归分布滞后协整方法和边限检验技术对正规金融与非正规金融之间的长期与短期关系进行了检验，并对影响正规金融与非正规金融环境容量的因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明，长期内，正规金融的种群密度与非正规金融的环境容量以及非正规金融的种群密度与整个金融的环境容量之间存在稳定的长期关系，对正规金融与非正规金融环境容量产生影响的外部环境因素主要是利率因素；短期内，非正规金融的种群密度对正规金融的环境容量有抑制作用。
关键词：生态金融 正规金融 非正规金融 共生
The Symbiosis Model of Formal Finance and Informal Finance and its Test
Xiaojing Peng Ming Deng
Abstract: From the angle of financial ecosystem, this paper establishes the Logistic symbiosis model, estimates the environment volume of formal finance and informal finance. Then, this paper tests the long and short relations between formal finance and informal finance by use of autoregressive distributed lag cointegration approach and bound test, and empirically studies the factors that influence the environment volume of formal finance and informal finance. The result of the study shows that there are stable relations between the population density of formal finance and the environment volume of informal finance, and also between the population density of informal finance and the environment volume of formal finance, and in the long term, the main outside factor that influences the environment volume of formal finance and informal finance is rate. In the short term, the population density of informal finance has inhibiting effect to the environment volume of formal finance.
Keywords: Ecological Finance Formal Finance Informal Finance Symbiosis
JEL Classifications: G21 G20 G38
金融发展、技术创新与产业结构优化
——基于中等收入国家的经验分析
丁一兵 傅缨 捷曹野
摘 要：金融发展能够对技术创新活动产生影响，进而改变一国的产业结构。本文在对这一作用机制进行讨论的基础上，利用中国等20个中等收入国家8大行业1992-2007年的面板数据，通过引入金融发展与技术创新的交互项，运用POLS和动态面板GMM估计考察了一国国内金融发展通过技术创新这一特定渠道对本国产业结构优化的影响。结果表明，总体而言，在样本期间内，一国的金融发展程度越高，其越可能通过影响本国的技术创新推动产业结构的优化，其中金融部门总体规模、银行业规模与效率、股票市场活跃程度以及特定领域的金融改革都具有显著的积极作用，但股票市场规模的扩张并未体现相应的影响。从长期看，为实现产业结构优化，成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”，进一步推动本国金融发展与改革具有重要意义。
关键词： 金融发展 技术创新 产业结构优化 中等收入国家
Financial Development, Innovation and Industrial Structural Optimization
——Evidence from Middle-Income Countries
Yibing Ding Yingjie Fu Ye Cao
Abstract: Financial development can have an impact on technological innovation activities, and then change the industrial structure of a country. Through the introduction of financial development and technological innovation interaction, we did cross-country cross-industry empirical analysis by using POLS and dynamic GMM estimation to test whether domestic financial development can have a significant effect on industrial structural optimization through the specific channel of innovation or not. We found that, the higher the degree of a country's financial development, the more likely it is to promote the optimization of the industrial structure through the channel of technical innovation during the sample period. Specifically, the scale and efficiency of bank sector, the activity of stock market and specific areas of financial reform can have a significant effect on industrial structural optimization, on the other hand, the expansion of stock market did not show such a effect, From a long-term perspective, it is necessary to further promote the financial development and reform in order to realize the optimization of the industrial structure and crossed the "middle income trap" successfully.
Keywords:Financial Development Technology Innovation Industrial Structural Optimization Middle-Income Country
JEL Classification: C23 E52 L16
环境政策工具与技术吸收激励：差异性、适应性与协同性
曾世宏 王小艳
摘 要：环境技术吸收激励与环境政策工具选择之间存在匹配和协同效应。本文研究表明基于市场交易价格改变的排污交易许可政策的技术吸收激励效应最强，执行成本相对最小；环境污染税和减排津贴工具的政策效应虽然也不依赖于企业对于环境规制合约的遵从情况和环境规制者的监控努力，但难以避免企业税收逃避和骗取津贴等逆向选择行为，从而造成社会净福利的损失；排污标准政策工具的激励效应需要环境规制者的监控努力协同，且应实行差异化的排污水平，因此，以污染减排为主要手段的生态文明建设应充分发挥市场机制的决定性作用。
关键词：环境规制 技术吸收 激励匹配
Environmental Policy Tools and Technology Absorption Incentive
------Heterogeneity, Adaptability and Coordination
Shihong Zeng Xiaoyan Wang
Abstract:There is a match and coordination effect between environmental technology absorption incentives and policy tool choice. Technology absorption incentives effect of the emissions trading price tool is the strongest, and its implementation cost is relatively smallest. Although the policy effect of pollution tax and emission reduction subsidy doesn’t depend on the contract compliance and monitoring efforts, it is difficult to avoid the adverse selection behavior of corporate tax evasion and defrauding the allowance, which resulting in net social welfare losses. The incentive effect of emission standards depends on not only the environmental regulator’s monitoring efforts but also the different emission level. Therefore, pollution abatement as the main means of the construction of ecological civilization should give full play to the decisive role of the market mechanism.
Keywords:Environmental Regulation Technology Absorption Incentive match
JEL Classification: L14 L51 H23 O33
基于结构性剩余索取权的我国电力行业激励性规制
——非正式制度的视角
杨永忠 胡宏鹏 林明华
摘 要：同样的规制设计，在不同国家、地区或不同时期为什么会出现不同绩效？围绕这一问题，本文以电力行业为对象探讨了规制经济学中被忽视的非正式制度对规制安排及绩效的影响。通过拓展的结构性剩余索取权概念，建立了一个加入非正式制度变量的激励校正模型，得出了剩余分配倾向于积极性非正式制度的最优分配原则。在此基础上，提出了基于结构性剩余索取权的ISP激励性规制，探讨了我国电力行业合作激励的 “四阶段”改革和发展思路。
关键词：非正式制度 结构性剩余索取权 电力行业 ISP激励性规制
The Incentive Regulation of China's Electricity Industry Based on Structural Right of Residual Claim
——A View of Informal Institutions
Yongzhong Yang Hongpeng Hu Minghua Lin
Abstract:Why does the same regulatory arrangement result in the different performance in different areas or period? On this question, the paper analyzes the effect of informal institutions on the incentive regulation of electricity industry, which was often ignored in researches of regulation economics. Through the extensive conception of the structural right of residual claim, the paper establishes an extended model of incentive distortion with informal institutional variable. Consequently, it’s reasonable that the diverse informal institutions require different allocations of residual when the system comes to optimum, drawing a principle of optimal allocation, which is “the more positive institutions, the more rights of residual claim”. Based on the mathematical research, we also develops an “ISP” analytic framework under the structural right of residual claim, which is neither the traditional regulation, nor the incentive regulation, but the cooperative incentive regulation between formal institutions and informal institutions. After analysis on cooperation mechanism and base principles of “ISP” incentive regulation, and empirical analyzing about the regulation reform of China's electricity industry, the paper figures out 4 stages reform and development of China electricity industry on the base of cooperative incentive.
Keywords:Informal Institutions Structural of Residual Claim Electricity Industry ISP Incentive Regulation
JEL Classification: L16 L51 B52
我国区域经济协调发展的大国雁阵模式
—— 一个产业集聚与扩散的视角
纪玉俊 张鹏
摘 要：我国东中西部地区间的经济发展差异较大，区域经济的协调发展问题向来受到关注。在构建理论分析框架的基础上，本文从产业集聚与扩散的角度提出了协调发展的大国雁阵模式，并采用系统GMM估计方法对这一模式进行了检验。结果表明，新世纪之后作为“头雁”的东部地区已经不具备劳动力比较优势，而以此为基础的制造业集聚对区域发展也体现出负向作用，也就是东部地区亟需形成新的比较优势实现产业升级；而中西部地区在具有劳动力比较优势的情况下没有较好地承接东部地区的产业扩散，也就是缺乏与东部地区“反哺”实现对接的相关条件。根据上述结果提出了在我国区域经济协调发展中促进大国雁阵模式形成的对策建议。
关键词：大国雁阵模式 产业集聚与扩散 比较优势
The “Flying Geese” Model of Great Power of the Coordinated Development of Regional Economies in China
—— from the Perspective of Industrial Agglomeration and Diffusion
Yujun Ji Peng Zhang
Abstract: As a great power, the differences of economic development are much larger among the eastern, central and western regions in China. The problem of coordinated development of regional economies has always been concerned. Based on the foundation of theoretical analysis framework, this paper puts forward the “flying geese” model of great power of the coordinated development from the perspective of industrial agglomeration and diffusion, and test the model by using the estimation method of system GMM. The results show that after the new century, the eastern region has not already had the labor comparative advantage as the “leading geese”, and on this basis, the manufacturing industry agglomeration also reflects the negative effect on regional development, that is to say the eastern region needs to form new comparative advantage to achieve industrial upgrading; However, the central and western regions with labor comparative advantage do not undertake the industrial diffusion of the eastern region, which means the lack of related conditions that achieve docking with the “feedback” of the eastern region. According to the above results, we put forward the countermeasures and suggestions which purpose is to promote the formation of the great power’s “flying geese” model in the coordinated development of regional economies in China.
Keywords: The “Flying Geese” Model of Great Power Industrial Agglomeration And Diffusion Comparative Advantage
JEL Classification：O33 P23 R11
货币供给、预期形成与中国铝价运动
孙泽生 孙便霞 王淑云
摘要：从货币视角来理解代表性大宗商品价格变化对产业发展、经济运行和宏观调控具有重要影响。本文通过扩展的Frankel & Rose(2009)模型并控制国际市场风险因素，实证研究货币因素对中国铝价的影响及其预期形成。实证表明：（1）中国铝现货价格与货币间存在稳定的长期均衡关系，货币流动性对铝价有显著的正向效应和较长的持续效应，而经济活动变量对铝价的影响为负；（2）在2008年金融危机及我国货币政策调整前后，货币冲击对铝价的影响存在明显的结构变化，且货币冲击的重要性显著强于经济活动冲击；（3）存在由国际和国内滞后期期货价格形成我国铝价的预期形成机制，但受金融危机和结构变化的影响，市场的铝价预期形成变化明显，从危机前更乐观的预期转向危机后明显谨慎的预期形成。
关键词：货币因素 大宗商品价格 中国铝市场 预期形成
Money Supply, Expectation Formation and Chinese Aluminum Price Movement
Zesheng Sun Bianxia Sun Shuyun Wang
Abstract:This paper empirically studies the long-run relation and short-term dynamics between commodity price and money liquidity in Chinese aluminum market based on VAR methodology, and the influence of money shock on commodity price and structural change is also discussed based on shock factor variables constructed from original data. Empirical results show that: (1) the long-run equilibrium between money factor and Chinese aluminum price exists, and money liquidity positively significantly influence the price with long-lasting period, contrary to the negative effect of economic activity. (2) Significant evidence for structure change is found, i.e., the influence of money shock on commodity price before 2008 is different after the eruption of worldwide financial crisis and the shifting of Chinese monetary policy, and the influence of money shock is significantly stronger than that of economic activity shock. (3) There exists an expectation formation mechanism of lagged futures prices home and abroad on aluminum spot price, with apparent change of expectation formation, from quite optimistic expectation before the crisis to quite prudent expectation formation after the crisis.
Keywords:Money Factor Commodity Price Chinese Aluminum Market Expectation Formation
JEL Classification: E51 D84 L61 P22