中国产能过剩的成因与测度
沈坤荣 钦晓双 孙成浩
摘 要:中国经济由改革之初的短缺经济演变为当前的局部过剩,其中既有市场经济本身固有的惯性,也特别受到中国特色政治经济体制的影响。本文不同于其他研究产能过剩的文献之处在于,着重分析分权体制下政府(特别是地方政府)在产能过剩问题中所产生的影响。在此基础之上,提出了中央治理产能过剩政策的局限性及其基本失败的理论猜想,并对中国35个工业行业1998~2008年产能利用率进行测度从而证实了以上猜想 。研究显示,有42.8%的行业存在不同程度的产能过剩问题,而且产能过剩问题呈现范围逐步扩大、强度逐步提高的特点。本文认为在现有政绩考核制度下,由于各方利益关系难以理顺,中央政府治理措施在地方往往被束之高阁,产能过剩问题因此愈演愈烈。
关键词:产能过剩政府 成因与测度 产能利用率
The Causes and Measurement of China’s Excess Capacity
Kunrong Shen Xiaoshuang Qin Chenghao Sun
Abstracts: China's economy has been turning into a state of local excess from a state of shortage of supply at the beginning of the reforms. The reasons come from two ways. Beside the inertia inherent in a market economy, the political and economic system with Chinese characteristics has special effects in the process. The biggest difference between this paper and other research literatures is that we focus on analyzing the role which the governments (especially local governments) play in the problem of excess capacity. On this basis, this paper proposes the theory conjecture about the limitations of central governance’s measures on the problem of excess capacity. By the empirical research of capacity utilization rates of China’s 35 industrial sectors from 1998 to 2008, we confirm the conjecture .The result shows, 42.8 percent of 35 industrial sectors had different levels of excess capacity, and the problem of excess capacity was more and more serious in recent years. This paper argues that in the existing performance appraisal system, the local governments always ignored the central government’s control measures, the problem of excess capacity thus intensified.
Keywords:Excess Capacity Government Causes Measurement Capacity Utilization Rates
JEL Classification: C23 E22 L52
中国信息产业技术效率及影响因素分析
——基于随机前沿分析方法的省际实证研究
李春梅 杨蕙馨
摘 要:采用随机前沿分析方法,对2007—2010年中国28个省(自治区、直辖市)信息产业的技术效率进行实证分析,进而探讨中国信息产业技术效率与外部环境影响因素的关系。得到结论:中国信息产业技术效率较低,但逐年提升,技术效率区域差距显著,东部地区技术效率最高,其次为东北和西部地区,中部地区最低。信息产业存在非中性技术进步。经济发展水平和教育水平与信息产业技术效率正相关,外商直接投资和政府对科技发展的支持度与技术效率没有显著性关系,出口和居民信息消费系数与技术效率负相关。
关键词:信息产业 技术效率 技术进步 随机前沿分析
The Research on Technical Efficiency and Its Determinants of China's Information Industry: Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis
Chunmei Li Huixin Yang
Abstract:Based on stochastic frontier analysis, this paper analyzes the technical efficiency of information industry among 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2007 to 2010, and then discusses the relationship of technical efficiency and its determinants. Results show that the technical efficiency of Chinese information industry is low but increasing year by year, technical efficiency is highest in eastern region, higher in northeast and the west region, and high in central region. Non-neutral technical progress is found in information industry. There are positive correlations between the level of economic development and education and technical efficiency, no significant correlation between foreign direct investment and degree of government's scientific support and technical efficiency, and negative correlations between export and residents’ information consumption coefficients and technical efficiency.
Keywords:Information Industry Technical Efficiency Technical Progress Stochastic Frontier Analysis
JEL Classification: C33 O14
社会监督与药品安全监管的博弈分析
刘素坤
摘 要:近年来,媒体和社会公众监督已成为公共安全事件曝光的重要手段,“毒胶囊事件”的爆发再次引起社会公众对我国药品安全问题的广泛关注。本文将媒体和社会公众监督纳入药品安全监管分析框架,构建了监管部门与药品企业、社会公众监督之间的博弈模型。研究结果表明,加强媒体监督力量、广泛推行匿名举报制度、加大对违法药品企业的处罚力度,有利于提升我国的药品安全水平。本文研究对完善我国药品安全监管体制具有重要的理论和实践价值。
关键词:社会监督 媒体监督 药品安全监管 博弈分析
Game Analysis of Social Supervision in the Drug Safety Regulation
Sukun Liu
Abstract:"Poison capsule event" torture our drug safety Regulation system. The paper constructs the drug safety regulation model which added to the media and the public two themes. Starting from the three aspects of drug regulators, the paper builds the models of game theory among drug regulators, pharmaceutical enterprises and general public. Based on the equilibrium of the game models, it puts forward some pieces of advice for the reinforcement of drug safety regulation, Such as emphasizing the social supervision, perfecting the drug complaints reporting system, increasing the punishment of the Illegal drug enterprises.
Keywords : Social Supervision Media Scrutiny Drug Safety Regulation Game Analysis
JEL Classification: C70 L59 L65
自然垄断行业监管改革需要顶层设计
——监管机制、体制、制度功能“耦合”论
谢 地 刘佳丽
摘 要:我国自然垄断行业政府监管改革从20世纪90年代中期开始在电信、电力、民航、铁路等几大自然垄断行业密集展开,到本世纪初达到最高潮。此后,改革渐趋于平稳,并呈现出停滞的态势。表面上看,中国自然垄断行业监管在监管机制、监管体制和监管制度等几个方面都已做出过大胆改革尝试,似乎已经无“制”可改。实际情况则是,由于缺乏改革的顶层设计,我国自然垄断行业监管改革已经陷入难以有所作为的“胶着”状态。必须从监管改革的顶层设计的高度把监管机制、监管体制和监管制度改革通盘加以考量,在监管机制、体制、制度功能“耦合”的基础上推进自然垄断行业监管改革。
关键词:自然垄断 监管机制 监管体制 监管制度 功能耦合
Natural Monopoly Industry Regulatory Reform Requires Top-Level Design
——Function "Coupling" Theory of the Regulatory Mechanism, Institution and Legal System
Di Xie Jiali Liu
Abstract:China's natural monopoly industry government regulatory reform starts in the natural monopoly industries such as telecommunications, electricity, civil aviation, railways and so on from the mid-1990s, and intensive expanding culminated to the beginning of this century. Since then, the reform gradually stabilized, showing a trend of stagnation. On the surface, China's natural monopoly industry regulatory have made bold attempts on the aspects of the regulatory mechanism, institution and legal system, it seems to have no "system" can be changed. The actual situation is, the natural monopoly industries regulatory reform in China has been plunged into a the stalemate "state which is difficult to make a difference due to the lack of top-level design of the reform. It is necessary that regulatory mechanisms, institutional and legal system reform must be designed from the height of top level of the regulatory reform.to promote the natural monopoly industry regulatory reform on the basis of the function "coupling" of regulatory mechanism, institutional and legal system.
Keywords:Natural Monopoly Regulatory Mechanism Regulatory Institution Regulatory Legal System Function Coupling
JEL classicafition: L40 L12 N40
公司治理与技术创新能力——来自制造业216家公司的经验证据
杜龙政 蒋神州
摘 要:本文采用了64家上市公司和152家非上市公司2008—2010年的平衡面板数据,对公司治理与技术创新能力之间的关系进行了研究,并在上市公司和非上市公司之间进行了比较研究。实证结果表明:董事会中存在技术董事能增强企业的技术创新能力;董事受教育程度越高企业的技术创新能力越强;董事会会议次数越多企业的技术创新能力越强;上市公司和非上市公司的情况一样,公司治理均能影响技术创新能力。
关键词:公司治理 技术创新 技术董事
Corporate Governance and Technology Innovation Capability -- Empirical Evidence from 216 Manufacturing Companies
Longzheng Du Shenzhou Jiang
Abstract: Using the 2008-2010's balanced panel data of 64 listed companies and 152 non-listed companies, this paper discusses the relationship between corporate governance and technology innovation capability, compares listed companies with non-listed companies. The empirical results show that the existing of Technology Director in the board of directors can enhance companies' technology innovation capability; directors with higher level of education brings stronger technology innovation capability; the more board meetings are given, the higher the enterprises' technology innovation capability is; and listed companies has the same situation with non-listed companies in the case of corporate governance affecting technology innovation capability.
Keywords:Corporate Governance Technology Innovation Technology Director
JEL Classification: D82 L53 O32
下游存在质量差异的纵向兼并效应研究
——基于古诺竞争模型
綦勇 周霄雪 李凯
摘 要:本文建立了上游为垄断中间产品生产商,下游为双寡头最终产品生产商,且下游企业产品存在质量差异并进行古诺竞争的纵向结构,考察质量差异市场中纵向兼并的创新效应与福利效应。研究表明:纵向一体化通常会促进一体化企业的创新而抑制竞争企业的创新;纵向一体化结构使一体化企业的利润提高,竞争企业的利润降低,生产者总利润降低;在产品存在质量差异的情况下,纵向一体化结构下消费者总剩余高于纵向分离结构,消费者福利得到改善;纵向一体化结构下的社会总福利低于纵向分离结构下的社会总福利。
关键词:纵向差异 古诺竞争 纵向一体化 福利效果
Impacts of Vertical Integration on Downstream Quality Innovation in Vertically Differentiated Markets
Yong Qi Xiaoxue Zhou Kai Li
Abstract:This paper establishes a model with an upstream monopoly and two downstream duopolies to examine the impacts of vertical integration on downstream innovation in vertically differentiated markets, discusses the impacts of vertical integration on downstream innovation and analyses the welfare effects. The following results are concluded: vertical integration will promote the innovation of integrated firm and inhibit the innovation of competitive firm. The total profits of producers are decreased under vertical integration. For the welfare effects of vertical integration, the social welfare is deteriorated though the consumer surplus may be improved.
Keywords: vertical differentiation Cournot competition vertical integration welfare effects
JEL Classification: L15 L42 L97
铁矿石寡头市场合谋行为的实证研究
钱成 周菁
摘 要:铁矿石市场的垄断广为市场所诟病,但却缺乏有效地证明。对矿山巨头们的市场行为进行分析,可发现矿山巨头们具有明显的市场协同行为,尤其是在中国市场上表现最为明显。基于垄断厂商的定价理论,文章建立了在铁矿石需求不断增长情况下的卖方寡头垄断模型,并详细测算了模型的各项参数。通过把模型测算的结果和实际市场数据对比分析,证明了这一模型的有效性,验证和说明了矿山巨头们如何运用其市场势力,形成隐性卡特尔组织的事实。
关键词:铁矿石 卡特尔 市场势力 默契合谋
The Positive Research of Collusion Behavior in Oligopoly Market of Iron Ore
Cheng Qian Jing Zhou
Abstract: There are many criticism to monopoly behavior in iron ore market, but there are lack effective prove. To study the market behavior of mines giants, there are obviously cooperation in iron ore market, especially in Chinese iron ore market. Based on the pricing theory of monopoly, this paper establishes an seller oligopoly model for the market which demand continue increasing, and measurement and calculation of every model parameter. By the comparative analysis between the result of calculation of model parameter and actual market date, to prove this model is effective. It also test and verify those mines giants how to use their market power, and the truth of forming hidden cartels.
Keywords:Iron Ore Cartels Market Power Tacit Collusion
JEC Classification: L13 L11 L41
“资源诅咒”发展历程及其传导机制文献综述
马宇 杜萌
摘 要:从Auty提出“资源诅咒”假说以来,自然资源禀赋与经济发展悖论就引起了学术界的广泛关注。本文阐述了“资源诅咒”假说现有的研究成果,对“资源诅咒”假说的发展历程、传导机制进行了系统梳理,根据相关国家的发展经验提出了相应的政策建议,最后对“资源诅咒”假说未来可能发展的方向进行了预测。
关键词:资源诅咒 自然资源 经济发展 传导机制
"Resource Curse" Development and Transmission Mechanism: A Survey
Yu Ma Meng Du
Abstract:From Auty proposing the hypothesis of "resource curse", the paradox caused by the relationship of natural resource endowment and economic development has arised extensive concern over the academic circles. This paper explains the existing research results of the hypothesis of "resource curse", combs the development of the hypothesis of "resource curse" as well as conduction mechanism, according to relevant state of experience, puts forward relevant suggestions, and finally puts forward the direction of the hypothesis of "resource curse" that may follow in future.
Keywords:Resource Curse Natural Resource Economic Growth Transmission Mechanism
JEL Classification: Q32 L81
税收规避、福利与厂商区位:基于Logit模型的实证研究
王永培
摘 要:本文选择了京津唐、长三角和珠三角三大工业集聚区的65000多家中小企业为样本数据,采取Logit离散选择模型研究了我国厂商的区位选择问题,并比较总福利支出、失业保险、养老保险、住房保障和职工教育等地区公共政策引起厂商区位选择的效果。研究发现,长三角和珠三角企业的福利支出对厂商的区位变动的影响是正面的,京津唐工业集聚区的福利政策则在一定程度上阻碍了厂商的迁入,而失业保险和养老保险的作用在三大工业集聚区中也存在区别,企业隶属关系哑变量中省份变量的估计系数较为显著,省属企业更易受到区位选择因素的影响,中央企业的区位变动较为困难。
关键词:税收规避 福利 厂商区位 Logit模型
Tax Evasion, Welfare and Firm Location: An Empirical Research Based on Logit Model
Yongpei Wang
Abstract:This paper chose Jing-Jin-Tang, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta which are Chinese three industrial agglomeration areas, and use more than 65000 small and medium-sized enterprises as the sample data, to study firm location problem of our country by the method of Logit discrete choice model. To compare of total spending on welfare, unemployment insurance, endowment insurance, housing security and education of staff and workers in areas such as public policy by the effect of firm location choice. This study found that the welfare expenditures of enterpries in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta were positive for firm loction choise, the welfare policy of Jing-Jin-Tang industrial agglomeration some extently hindered the manufacturers to move into , and the role of unemployment insurance and old-age insurance for the three major industrial agglomeration areas is also different. The coefficients of estimated variable for corporate affiliation dumb is remarkable for Province, which shows that the provincial enterprises are more vulnerable for they location choice, and it is more difficult for the location changing of the central enterprises.
Keywords:Tax Evasion Welfare Firm Location Logit Model
JEL Classification: H26 R38
开放经济条件下金融发展对碳排放的影响
原毅军 芦云鹏
摘 要: 改革开放以来中国经济呈现出一个飞速增长的态势。然而,由于粗放型增长方式对能源资源的过度依赖,所产生的环境负外部效应同样阻碍着经济的可持续发展。金融发展不仅对经济增长发挥较大地驱动作用,而且也对资源利用效率和环境绩效产生极大的影响。本文利用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)检验中国金融发 展和二氧化碳排放之间的短期及长期均衡关系。结果表明:在开放经济条件下,金融发展与二氧化碳排放之间呈负相关关系,即金融的不断发展在一定程度上会减少二氧化碳排放,抑制环境污染。
关键词:金融发展;碳排放;自回归分布滞后模型
The Effect of Financial Development on Carbon Emissions in an Open Economy
Yijun Yuan Yunpeng Lu
Abstract: Since the reform and opening up, the economy has been in a rapid growth in China. However, environmental negative externalities resulting from the extensive economic growth mode, which excessively depend on the energy and resource, also hinder sustainable economic development. Financial development doesn’t only play major role of driving the economic growth, but also has a significant impact on the resource using efficiency and environmental performance. This article examines short-term and long-term equilibrium relationships between financial development and carbon dioxide emissions in China by employing the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The results imply that there is a negative correlation between financial development and carbon dioxide emissions in an open economy. That is to say, the continuous financial development will reduce carbon dioxide emissions and inhibit environmental pollution to some extent.
Keywords: Financial Development Carbon Emissions Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model
JEL Classifications: G10 Q52