产品市场竞争和异质波动:“自然避险”还是“信息不确定”?
孔东民 杨薇
摘 要:本文研究产品市场竞争与异质波动之间的关系,并进一步基于自然避险与信息不确定的角度考察两者的内在影响机制。结果发现:公司的市场力量与异质波动之间呈显著负相关;这种负向关系主要来自于信息不对称机制,即公司的市场力量通过影响投资者对该股票的未来平均利润率的不确定性,进而间接影响股票的异质波动;同时,公司通过其市场力量作用于资产波动的自然避险机制,则效果不明显。本文的研究具有明晰的政策含义,即加强信息披露质量,降低信息不确定性,从而进一步降低市场波动。
关键词:异质波动 自然避险 信息不确定性
Product Market Competition and Idiosyncratic Volatility: “Natural Hedge” or “Uncertainty”?
Dongmin Kong Wei Yang
Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between market competition and idiosyncratic volatility, and furthermore, examines the underlying mechanism based on two arguments, i.e. natural hedge and information uncertainty. We find that, 1). Market power and idiosyncratic volatility reveal significantly negative correlation; 2). This kind of relationship mainly comes from uncertainty channel, which means market power influences investors’ uncertainty of firm’s future profitability; 3). The natural hedge mechanism effect is not significant in Chinese stock market, that is, the market power does not work well as a natural hedge to decrease the volatility of earnings and the idiosyncratic volatility. Our results have clear policy implications: the regulator should improve the quality of information disclosure, and reduce the uncertainty of market information, so as to achieve the purpose of market stabilization.
Keywords:Market Competition Idiosyncratic Volatility Natural Hedge Information Uncertainty
JEL:G10 G12 G14
混合寡头模型中的内生行动顺序——FDI背景下的一个扩展和讨论
吉生保 崔新健 周小柯
摘 要:文章通过构建一个“两阶段+两期”博弈框架,分析了不同市场主体边际成本存在差异的情况下,本土国有企业、私人企业和外商企业在Cournot产量竞争模型中的内生行动顺序问题,扩展了Lu(2006)的线性模型。本研究的一个主要结论是——在东道国本土国有企业边际成本适中、市场机制尚未完善的情况下,所有的市场主体同时先行动可以组成一个稳定的均衡——这一点可能对包括中国内地在内的广大发展中国家更为适用!这是包括Lu(2006)以及Pal(1998)等在内的该领域文献所忽略的结论。
关键词:混合寡头 内生行动顺序 稳定均衡 边际成本
Endogenous Timing in Mixed Oligopoly Model——An Extension and Discussion against the Background of FDI
Shengbao Ji Xinjian Cui Xiaoke Zhou
Abstract:Considering the marginal costs differences of market-players, this paper constracts a “two-stage plus two-period” game to analyze the endogenous timing problems of Cournot model among domestic state-owned enterprise(SOE), domestic private enterprises and foreign enterprises, which riches the linear model of Lu(2006). One main result of this research shows that in the situation of medium marginal cost of SOE, together with to-be-improved market mechanism, all the market-players act at the same time can make a stable equilibrium, which is more suitable to developing countries, including Main-land China. Unfortunately, such a result is neglected among the existing literatures in this field, just as Lu(2006) and Pal(1998).
Keywords:Mixed Oligopoly Endogenous Timing Stable Equilibrium Marginal Cost
JEL Classification: L13 D43 C72
基于Malmquist指数的国有企业资本配置效率演进特征分析
陶虎 田金方 郝书辰
摘 要:本文基于DEA-Malmquist生产率指数,利用2002-2010年全国31省份国有企业的面板数据,实证测算了国有企业在建立现代企业制度以来的资本配置效率以及技术进步、技术效率指数,并与同时期的私营企业进行比较。分析结果显示,就国有企业TFP变动模式而言,2002-2010年间TFP每年以4.1%的速度增长,TFP增长率波动呈现“收敛-下滑-增长”态势;就TFP增长的构成而言,技术进步起到主导作用,且技术效率变化与技术进步之间存在替代关系;就TFP增长的地区特征而言,东部和内陆资源丰富省份TFP增长较快,且技术进步同样起到主导作用;与私营企业相比,国有企业资本配置效率不一定是低效的,但“抗干扰”能力弱于私营企业。
关键词:国有企业;Malmquist指数;资本配置效率
Characteristics of Capital Allocation Efficiency Evolution of the State-owned Enterprises---A Malmquist Index Approach
Hu Tao Jinfang Tian Shuchen Hao
Abstract: This paper employs DEA-Malmquist productivity index to calculate and decompose capital allocation efficiency, technical progress, and technology efficiency index since the modern enterprise system reform based on panel data of 2002-2010 with 31 provinces of the State-owned Industrial Enterprises, and compare with Private Enterprises during the same period. The authors find that the yearly TFP growth rate is about 4.1% during 2002-2010, and its volatility pattern shows up as "converge-decline-increase"; it is the technical progress that cause TFP growth, and technical efficiency change and technical progress are substitutable with each other; the east and resource-rich provinces of inland enjoy higher TFP growth compared with others, and technical progress also plays a leading role. And capital allocation efficiency of the State-owned Industrial Enterprises is not definitely low, but its anti-interference ability is weaker than Private Enterprises.
Keywords: State-owned Enterprises Malmquist Index Capital Allocation Efficiency
JEL Classification: O47 O53 P27
认证机构信誉缺失的低效率均衡及其改进
陈艳莹 李响 王二龙
摘 要:我国虚假认证现象屡禁不止,不仅损害消费者的利益,甚至还破坏了社会的信用机制。针对这一问题,我们构建了由企业、认证机构和消费者共同参与的重复博弈模型,从低效率均衡的角度分析了认证机构长期处于信誉缺失状态的成因,并提出了相应的规制措施。研究结果表明:认证机构的信息透明度较差,申请认证的企业普遍更注重短期利润,虚假认证收费低廉,政府监管不利等都是造成认证行业陷入低信誉状态的原因。优化认证行业的市场结构,引入非营利性组织,加强政府监管等措施能够促使认证机构逐步建立起自身的信誉。
关键词:认证机构 信誉缺失 重复博弈
Lack of Reputation among Certification Intermediary Focusing on Low Efficient Equilibrium and Its Improvement
Yanying Chen Xiang Li Erlong Wang
Abstract:False certification is a common phenomenon in china, which seriously harms the interests of consumers, even undermines social credit system. We build a repeated game model including corporation, consumer and certifier, to analyze the reason for certification intermediary’s lack of reputation from the perspective of low efficient equilibrium, and put forward corresponding regulation measures. The results show that the current dilemma is caused by poor information transparency of certifier, companies’ short-term goal, low fees for false certification and lack of regulation. To solve this problem, the government should optimize the market structure, encourage the establishment of non-profit certification intermediary and strict government regulation.
Keywords: Certification Intermediary Lack of Reputation Repeated Game
JEL Classification: C70 L20
基于公共物品供给理论的城市拆迁机制设计
杜晓君 宋宝全 罗猷韬
摘 要:城市拆迁问题是当前政府工作中的难题,已成为引发矛盾的重要根源。本文依据成熟的公共物品供给理论,给出了一个有效机制使城市拆迁顺利实施。首先从本质和技术界定两个层面,分析了城市拆迁顺利实施的公共物品属性,证明它是一种公共物品。其次,设计了一个G-C机制,能使房屋所有权人如实报告拆迁影响,在公平自愿的基础上配合帕累托改进的拆迁,否决非帕累托改进的拆迁。再次,向该机制中引入Clarke税,在拆迁实施的情况下抵消政府的补贴支出,在不实施的情况下惩罚垄断的房屋所有权人。最后,指出政府在设计城市拆迁机制时须注意的技术问题。
关键词:城市拆迁 公共物品 G-C机制 克拉克税
Research on Urban Housing Demolition Mechanism Based on Public Goods Supply Perspective
Xiaojun Du Baoquan Song Youtao Luo
Abstract: Urban housing demolition is a problem in government work and it is the root that triggers contradiction. This paper provides effective mechanism to implement urban housing demolition smoothly. Firstly,analyzes the public goods attribute of urban housing demolition form the levels of essence and technique, definition the result shows that urban housing demolition is a kind of public goods. Secondly,designed a G-C mechanism, which makes property owners report the effect of demolition honestly, fairly and voluntarily join the Pareto improving demolition and defies the Pareto deteriorating demolition. Thirdly,introduced Clarke tax into the G-C mechanism,which can counteract the high cost governmental subsidy expanse, when the demolition is implemented, and punish monopoly property owners when demolition is not implemented. Last, we points out issues which the government should pay attention to when designing the urban housing demolition.
Keywords: Urban Housing Demolition Public Goods G-C Mechanism Clarke Tax
JEL Classification: H21 H31 H41
中国经济增长对大气污染的影响——基于地区差异及门限回归的实证分析
李 平 沈得芳
摘 要:伴随着经济的发展,资源短缺和环境污染已成为人类社会可持续发展所面临的共同问题。本文利用中国省际面板数据分析经济增长对大气污染的影响,检验结果表明经济增长的环境效应显著,且地区差异较大。在此基础上,本文进一步通过构造门限回归模型对影响经济增长环境效应的若干因素及其门限特征进行实证检验,结果显示经济规模存在三重门槛,贸易开放度呈现双门限特征,它们对经济增长环境效应的影响存在显著的区间效应;外商直接投资和要素密集度存在单一门限值,它们与经济增长的环境效应呈单调正相关关系。
关键词:经济增长 大气污染 门限回归
The Air Pollution Effect of Economic Growth:
Analysis Based on Regional Differences in China and Threshold
Ping Li Defang Shen
Abstract: Along with the economic development, resources shortage and environmental pollution have become a common problem sustainable development of human society are facing. We test the air pollution effect of economic growth by using Chinese provincial panel data. The results show that economic growth have played an important role for air pollution of China,and there are differences in various regions. On this basis, we set a threshold model to measure the threshold level of factors affecting environmental effect of economic growth. The results show that Economic scale has three threshold, Trade openness has two threshold, their impact on environmental effect of economic growth show significant interval effect; Foreign direct investment and Factor intensity have three threshold, their impact on environmental effect of economic growth show monotonic positive relationship.
Keyword: Economic Growth Air Pollution Threshold Regression
JEL Classification: C33 Q53 Q56
中国信用评级的信息价值研究
李明明 秦凤鸣
摘 要:本文采用事件研究法,通过观察中国信用评级机构的评级改变所产生的债券和股票价格的统计性质来考察中国信用评级机构评级的信息价值,结果发现,升降级对于债券市场有显著影响,在降级前就有较小幅度的反应,债券市场对于升降级的反应具有断续性和迅速两大特点,股票市场在评级改变前已经发生反应,评级改变后对于股票市场仍旧有一定程度的影响,股票市场是降级反应要比升级反应迅速。综合考察信用评级对资本市场的影响可推论,目前中国信用评级机构的信用评级具有较大的信息价值。
关键词:信用评级 异常收益率 事件研究法
The Information Value of Chinese Credit Ratings
Mingming Li Fengming Qin
Abstract: This paper uses the event study method to study the information value of Chinese credit ratings through considering bond and stock prices reaction to the rating changes. We find that both upgrades and downgrades have strong effects on bond market and bond returns anticipate downgrades. And intermittence and speediness are the two characteristics of the bond market reaction to both upgrades and downgrades. For stock market, stock returns anticipate both upgrades and downgrades, however, rating changes still have impact on stock market to some extent with a quicker reaction to downgrades than upgrades. The conclusion of the paper is that Chinese credit ratings have relatively large information value.
Key words: Credit Rating Abnormal Returns Event Study Method
JEL Classification: D82 F34 G23
贸易自由化与垄断要素价格
刘 瑶
摘 要:本文建立了一个中间产品和最终产品同时进行贸易的两国寡头垄断模型,发现不同市场的贸易自由化会通过“产出效应”和“市场扩张效应”来影响本国的垄断要素价格。本国最终产品的贸易自由化会降低本国垄断要素的价格和上、下游企业的利润,本国中间产品的贸易自由化会提高本国垄断要素的价格和上、下游企业的利润。此结论与中间产品市场的竞争结构和定价策略,要素所有者是否和最终产品生产者分享联合利润等因素无关。如果两个市场同时发生贸易自由化,要素价格的变化方向取决各个市场关税减让的幅度和中间投入品的生产系数。
关键词:贸易自由化 要素价格 垄断要素
Trade Liberalization and Monopoly Input Price
Yao Liu
Abstract: This paper builds a Cournot duopoly model with trade in intermediate goods and final goods to show how trade liberalization will affect the price of domestic monopolistic input through the mechanism of output effect and market expansion effect. Trade liberalization on final goods will decrease domestic input price, and upstream and downstream firms’ profit, while trade liberalization on intermediate goods will increase domestic input price, and upstream and downstream firms’ profit. Our conclusion is independent of intermediate market structure, or pricing strategy of intermediates, or whether input supplier and final goods producer negotiate their joint profit. If trade liberalization happens on both markets, the overall change of domestic input price is related to the magnitude of the tariff reduction and coefficient of intermediate goods in production function.
Keywords: Trade Liberalization Input Price Market Monopoly Input
JEL Classification: F12 L11
基于新贸易理论的跨国公司一般均衡研究:理论进展与模型比较
王 建
摘 要:20世纪80年代以来,借助新贸易理论一般均衡模型对跨国公司的研究不断推进,从强调要素禀赋差异的垂直型跨国公司模型和强调临近-集中权衡的水平型跨国公司模型,到试图将两者综合起来的KK模型,再到引入多国、多要素对一般均衡模型的扩展研究,洞察了国家、产业、企业层面影响跨国公司结构的决定因素,在国际经济理论领域产生了深远影响。而实践中垂直型和水平型跨国公司以何为主,相关实证研究结论却莫衷一是。从研究范式看,基于新贸易理论的跨国公司一般均衡模型没能完全超越OIL框架,解释非一体化的组织结构、发展中跨国公司的兴起、企业异质性的作用,是其需要突破的研究方向。
关键词:跨国公司 对外直接投资 一般均衡 新贸易理论
New Trade Theroy and MNE in the General Equilibrium Approach: Theoretical Advance and Model Comparison
Jian Wang
Abstract:Since 1980s, the general equilibrium model of MNE based on new trade thoery developed to the composite KK model from the factor-difference-seeking vertical model and the proximity-concentration-tradeoff horizontal model. Further research incorporate multi- countries and factors. These models highlight country-, industry- and firm-level factors affecting MNE structures. However, empirical tests lead to controversial results and there is no consensus on whether the vertical structure or the horizontal structure prevails among MNEs. Moreover, these models are limited in the OIL framework and need modification to deal with the non-integration structures of MNEs, emergence of MNEs headquartered in developing countries, and firm heterogeneity.
Keywords:MNE Outward FDI Gneral Equilibrium New Trade Thoery
JEL Classification: F21 L16
战略性新兴产业国内研究成果述评
——基于技术分析脉络的理论研究节点梳理
霍 影
摘 要:“战略性新兴产业”是2010年以来国内产业经济学领域新晋的理论研究热点。国内学者对于其所涉及到的诸多方面理论节点都进行了广泛的研究,但综述及述评类的研究成果相对稀缺,且归纳取向相对发散、系统性不强。本文基于技术路线分析的方法,按照“产业内涵”、“产业识别”、“产业选择”、“产业培育”、“发展模式”、“产业评价”的研究脉络(次序)对2010~2011年已有文献成果的理论研究节点进行了系统的连接及总结。得出已有成果较多侧重“政策取向”等方面的宏观研究,但在“政策投放时机确定”和“统计口径选择”等方面基础研究工作薄弱,未来研究工作应更加注重基础研究和逆向思维逻辑取向的结论。
关键词:战略性新兴产业 技术分析脉络
Review of Domestic Research on Strategic and Emerging Industries:On the Perspective of Technical Path Based on Theory Research Nodes
Ying Huo
Abstract:"Strategic and Emerging Industries" was newly domestic theoretical research focus of industrial economics field since 2010. Domestic scholars involved in many aspects of its theoretical nodes, but the research achievements which belong to the type of summary or overview was relatively rare, summarized scattered and systemic weak. Based on the analysis method of technique path, the thesis summarized and connected the existing achievements from 2010 to 2011 according to the order from "Industry Content" to "Industry Recognize", and to "Industry Select", and to "Industrial Cultivate", "Development Model", and to "Industrial Evaluate", systematically. The Conclusion was that the existing achievements focused more on macro research such as "Policy Orientation", but weakly studied on microscopic work such as "Policy Implement Time", "Statistical Caliber Selection", etc. Meanwhile, future research should focus more on basic research and the reverse logic orientation.
Keywords:strategic and emerging industries technical analysis path review
JEL Classification:L52 L60 O25