差异产品市场横向兼并单边效应评价方法评述
王继平 于立
摘 要:差异产品市场横向兼并单边效应分析技术在最近的十几年有了迅速发展。产业经济学家和反垄断执行机构日益发现,以市场界定和集中计算为基础的结构推定方法,在用于差异产品市场单边效应评价时存在着严重的不足和困难。相关市场界定是评价兼并反竞争效应的手段而不是目的。因而经济学家除了研究如何更好地界定市场外,还发展了无须界定相关市场、直接估计横向兼并单边反竞争效应的新方法。自然实验(简化式估计)和兼并模拟已经运用于兼并审查实践之中。Farrell & Shapiro最近提出的UPP检验虽然明显有偏离现行的美国兼并指南之嫌,但是可望在新指南中体现出来。考察横向兼并单边效应分析技术的演进脉络及其最新发展,对丰富和改进中国反垄断执行机构的兼并审查工具以及制定更好的横向兼并指南有重要的参考价值。
关键词: 单边效应,协调效应,协同效应,兼并模拟,UPP检验
A Survey on the Approaches to Assessing the Unilateral Effects from Differentiated Products Horizontal Mergers
Wang Jiping Yu Li
Abstract: The last more than a decade has witnessed the dramatic developments of approaches to analyzing the unilateral effects due to a proposed horizontal merger in the differentiated products. Industrial organization economists and the antitrust agencies increasingly believe that there exist severe difficulties when the structural presumption based on relevant market definition and concentration calculation is applied to assess the unilateral effects of horizontal mergers with differentiated products. Rather than the purpose, defining a relevant market is a tool to assess anticompetitive effects associated with mergers. Apart from exploring how to define relevant antitrust market accurately, economists have developed new techniques which can be used to evaluate the unilateral effects directly without market definition. The natural experiments (reduced-form estimation) and the so-called merger simulation have applied to merger controls. While the UPP test proposed by Farrell and Shapiro recently is a significant departure from the current U. S. Guidelines, we believe that it is likely to integrate into the future guidelines. It is useful to investigate the evolutions and recent developments of approaches to assessing the unilateral effects from horizontal mergers for China’s antitrust agencies to richen and improve the merger control tools and to establish a good horizontal merger guideline.
Keywords: unilateral effects; coordinated effects; synergetic effects; merger simulation; UPP test
JEL Classification: L40 L41
全球经济失衡:被“饿死”还是被“胀死”?
——兼论中国增长模式转变与产业政策选择
杜 凯 蔡银寅 孙晓雪
摘 要:现代GDP之困使得人们对经济增长和经济波动的认识越来越模糊。在纵向全球价值链分工中,各国对“比较优势”误读造成了生产与交易长期的结构失衡,造成富国被“胀死”,穷国被“饿死”。经济危机正是全球经济结构失衡的典型表现。中国面临着转型时期的“两难困境”,不扩张生产就会被“饿死”;生产的越多,经济结构失衡的矛盾就会越突出。我们从四个方面阐述了贸易秩序以及中国增长模式的转变,即合理确定生产与交易的比例、实现技术的内生性变迁、改进出口和内需市场结构、明晰产业转型中政府的调控作用。
关键词:经济危机;比较优势;贸易模式;产业政策
Global Economy Imbalance: to be “Starve” or to be “Burst”
-- Change of Growth Mode and Choice of Industrial Policy
Du Kai Cai Yinyin Sun Xiaoxue
Abstract: The confusion on GDP makes people’s understanding of economy and fluctuation more increasingly blurred. In the vertical value chain, the misunderstanding of comparative advantage leads to the structural imbalance of production and transaction which means rich is burst while poor is starve. For China, it falls into the dilemma in the transition of economy; expansion of production will not be starved while producing more leads to the serious problem of contradiction in economy structure. We explain the trade order and transition of Chinese economy in four aspects: determining the proportion of production and transaction reasonable, making the endogenous technical change, improving the structure of export and domestic market, definite the role of government in the transition.
Keywords:Economic Crisis Comparative Advantage Trade Mode Industry Police
JEL Classification: F02 O11
承诺机制:委托与成本转化
Charles E. Hegji 胡晓娟
摘 要:本文考虑了企业利润最大化目标策略性偏离的两种模型。一种是将对生产的控制权委托给经理,另外一种是通过对生产要素供应的契约来将部分可变成本转化成固定成本。我们发现在一般情况下,这两种模型会得到不同结果。即使得到相同的均衡产量和价格,企业所有者的利润也可能因为委托和成本转化这两种方式的费用不同而不同。
关键词:成本转换 古诺均衡 委托 子博弈精炼均衡
On Delegation and Cost Conversion as Commitment Devices
Charles E. Hegji Hu Xiaojuan
Abstract:This paper considers two models of strategic deviation from profit maximization by firms. One involves delegating control over production to managers. The other involves adjusting factor supply contracts so as to convert part of variable cost into fixed cost. It is shown that in general the two models result in different outcomes. Even if equilibrium outputs and price are the same, firm owners’ profits may not be equivalent due to the cost differential between delegation and cost conversion.
Keywords: Cost Conversion, Cournot Competition, Delegation, Subgame-Perfect Equilibrium
JEL Classification: C72 L13 L21
强制还是自愿?——企业并购申报机制研究
彭树宏
摘 要:本文从理论上对两种并购申报机制——强制申报机制和自愿申报机制进行了比较分析。结论显示,两种机制的优劣不是绝对的,而是受到各种因素的影响。市场竞争状况较好,反垄断机构审查成本较高、审查能力较弱、事后纵容行为严重的情况下,强制申报机制更有优势;自愿申报机制更适合小规模并购,企业申报成本的增加会降低自愿申报机制的效率。本文的研究为中国当前的并购申报机制提供了理论支持。
关键词:企业并购;强制申报机制;自愿申报机制;反垄断
Compulsory or Voluntary? Pre-merger Notification Mechanism Research
Peng Shuhong
Abstract: This paper compares two types of pre-merger notification mechanisms-compulsory and voluntary pre-merger notification mechanisms. It is shown that the merits of the two mechanisms is not absolute, but subject to various factors; market competition in better condition, higher review cost, weaker ability and tolerating behavior of the anti-monopoly agency can make compulsory pre-merger notification mechanism more advantage. Voluntary pre-merger notification mechanism is more suitable for small-scale mergers, the increasing of corporate notification cost will reduce the efficiency of the voluntary pre-merger notification mechanism. This research provides a theoretical support for China's pre-merger notification mechanism.
Keywords: Merger Compulsory Pre-merger Notification Voluntary Pre-merger Notification Antitrust
JEL Classification: G34 K21 L40
中国海洋盐业演化机制研究
姜旭朝 李奇泳
摘 要:海盐在我国具有悠久历史,特别是自改革开放以来得到快速发展。然而究竟何种机制或原因导致其在历史演变过程中出现不同态势,本文从演化角度利用Logistic模型对海洋盐业演化过程进行实证分析,并探讨其内在动力机制。我国海洋盐业演化拟合优度较高,演化过程基本呈现出s曲线趋势,演化拐点出现在1995年。由产业演化分析可知1995年之前我国海洋盐业演化发展根本动力是利益驱动机制,之后产业增长速度迅速下降原因在于盐业管理体制导致盐业产业链条中各方利益冲突,2004年至今海洋盐业高速发展本质上是受到企业利益驱动机制作用。
关键词:海洋盐业;产业演化;Logistic模型;利益驱动机制
A Study on the the Evolutionary Mechanism of Marine Salt Industry in China
Jiang Xuzhao Li Qiyong
Abstract:Marine salt industry has a long history in China, and particularly it has developed rapidly since reform and opening up. But what kind of mechanism or cause leads to its emergence of different state in the historical evolution. In this paper, we will use Logistic model to empirically analyze the evolution of Marine salt industry and explore the internal drive mechanism of Marine salt industry. The conclusions are that: first of all, the empirical analysis shows that:(1)Evolution of marine salt holds a high goodness of fit ,showing the basic evolutionary trend of s curve;(2) Evolution of marine salt turning point occurs in 1995; Secondly, industry evolution analysis shows that:(1)The evolution of the fundamental driving force of marine salt is the interest-driven mechanism from 1949 to 1995;(2)The actual value deviated from the fitted values of industry is due to salt monopoly system and the increased demand for iodine, and subsequently industrial growth rate decreased rapidly is due to salt management system leading to parties to a conflict of interest in the salt industry chain;(3)The rapid development of marine salt is essentially affected by the business interest-driven mechanism since 2004.
Keywords: Marine Salt Industry; Industrial Evolution; Logistic Model; Interest-driven Mechanism
JEL Classification: C53 E11 L79
异质性、技术创新与产业演化
孙晓华 周玲玲
摘 要:产业演化的驱动因素是一个长期受到关注的问题,西方学者从演化经济学视角进行了理论和经验层面的深入分析。本文借鉴现有研究的有益思路,提出一个分析异质性、技术创新推动产业演化的理论框架,讨论了成本差异和产品多样性条件下异质性驱动产业演化的过程,考察了技术创新在生产成本降低和产品质量提升中的作用。进而,利用中国高技术产业1997-2007年间数据进行了实证研究,验证了企业异质性和技术创新能够促进产业演化的结论。
关键词:异质性 技术创新 产业演化
Heterogeneity, Technological Innovation and Industrial Evolution
Sun Xiaohua Zhou Lingling
Abstract:Drivers of industrial evolution has long been a concern, western scholars has made in-depth theory and experience analysis from the perspective of evolutionary economics. This study builds on the useful ideas of existing research, a theoretical framework to analysis how the heterogeneity, technological innovation to promote industrial evolution has been put forward, the process how heterogeneity to drive industrial evolution has been discussed under the conditions of cost difference and product diversity, the role of technological innovation in lowering production cost and improving product quality has been examined. Furthermore, we use Chinese high-tech industry’s data from 1997 to 2007 to make an empirical study, verified the conclusion that the enterprise heterogeneity, and technological innovation benefit industrial evolution.
Keywords:heterogeneity technological innovation industrial evolution
JEL Classification:L60 C51 C23
中国工业部门外资能源效率的测算与分解
陈小亮 綦建红
摘 要:中国为实现在哥本哈根全球气候峰会上的减排承诺,提高工业部门能源效率是更具现实操作性的措施,其中吸引外资是加速能源效率提升的举措之一。本文首先采用中国1999-2007年工业部门面板数据对影响能源消耗强度的因素进行分析,结果发现:外资参与程度的提高,有利于改善能源效率。然后运用Malmquist指数法测算了30个工业部门外资全要素能源效率的变化,结果表明,只有避免外资生产要素的配置不合理问题,才能有效提高中国的能源利用效率。
关键词:工业部门 外资 全要素能源效率 Malmquist指数法
Measure and Decomposition of FDI Energy Efficiency in China's Industrial Sector
Chen Xiaoliang Qi Jianhong
Abstract: In order to realize the goal made on Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, China should rely more on increasing energy efficiency, which can be accelerated by FDI. This article first analyzes the influential factors of china’s energy consumption intensity employing the panel data of 30 industrial sectors in China from 1999 to 2007, and the result show that the increasing participation of FDI reduces the energy consumption intensity of china’s industrial sectors. Then, by using Malmquist Index Approach, compute the changes of energy efficiency of foreign enterprises, concluding that avoiding irrational allocation of production factors of FDI can demonstrates more on China’s energy efficiency.
Keywords:Industrial Sector FDI Total Factor Energy Efficiency Malmquist Index Approach
JEL Classification: C23 O14 Q43
人力资本、城市化与经济增长
高 峰 吴石磊 王学真
摘 要:本文基于中国1996-2007年30个省的面板数据进行实证研究,考察我国东部、中部、西部不同区域人力资本、城市化与经济增长的关系,并进一步利用门槛面板回归模型,以城市化作为门槛变量,考察不同区间内,其对人力资本发挥促进经济增长作用的差异影响。分析结果表明:人力资本对经济增长的贡献度因城市化的强弱而呈现出显著的区间效应,人力资本对经济增长的贡献度随着城市化水平的提高呈现出近似“ ”型的曲线关系。城市化必须达到一定的门槛水平,才能有效推进人力资本发挥促进经济增长的作用。
关键词: 人力资本 城市化 经济增长 面板回归 门槛面板回归
Human Capital,Urbanization and Economic growth
Gao Feng Wu Shilei Wang Xuezhen
Abstract:This paper using panel datas of 30 provinces in China during 1996-2007 analyzes the relationship of human capital, urbanization and the economic growth among eastern region, the central region, weatern region in China, and further using threshold panel model with urbanization as a threshold observes the different effect of urbanization on the impact of human capital on promoting economic growth.The resulting shows: the contribution of human capital to economic growth has obvious interval effect with different urbanization and the contribution of human capital to economic growth shows “U” shape curve with the increasing urbanization. Only reaching a certain threshold level, can the urbanization effectively improve the effect of human capital on promoting economic growth.
Keywords:Human Capital Urbanization Economic growth Panel Regression Threshold Panel Regression
JEL Classification: O15 O18 O47
网络信息技术下的产业融合
------以新媒体为例
闫影 阎兆君
摘 要:基于电脑和网络通信技术的新媒体相对于传统媒体具有很多技术特性,表现在网络信息产品、特殊的成本结构等方面。新技术引致了新媒体领域的产业融合,微观层面的产业融合体现为新媒体厂商所提供的不再是单一形式的信息产品,而是通过多种载体传播的文本、图像、音频、视频等的整合信息产品;宏观层面的产业融合则体现为互联网正在与广播、电视、报业、出版融合在一起,彻底改变着媒体和传播业的整体形态。
关键词: 新媒体 网络信息产品 产业融合
The Industry Convergence Based on the Network Information Technology: An Example of New Media
Yan Ying Yan Zhaojun
Abstract: Based on the computer and network telecommunication technology, the new media has many technological characteristics compared to the traditional media, such as the network information products and the special cost structure. The new technology brings the industry convergence in the new media industry. The micro-level industry convergence is that the information products provided by the new media is not the single form, but the integration of text, picture, audio and video products transmitted by multi carriers. The macro-level industry convergence is that the internet is integrated with the radio, TV, newspaper, and the press, which change the whole state of media industry. Keywords: new media network information products industry convergence
JEL Classification:L82 L86 L16